Uzbekistan Super League, round 25 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Nasaf Qarshi — Sogdiana
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Nasaf Qarshi are clear favourites: 61% against 18% for the opponent, draw 21%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.6 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 68%, both teams to score — 64%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Nasaf Qarshi are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Nasaf Qarshi — No. 5, 37 pts; Sogdiana — No. 11, 28 pts. A gap of 9 pts.
- Nasaf Qarshi: 4 wins in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Nasaf Qarshi — Sogdiana What is xG? | 2.4–1.2 | |
| Nasaf Qarshi not to lose | 82% | |
| Sogdiana not to lose | 39% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 64% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 36% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 68% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 32% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Nasaf Qarshi
- Nasaf Qarshi goals
- Sogdiana goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10Dinamo Samarkand2:1
- 20.09away · Andijon4:1
- 09.09Bunyodkor Tashkent3:0
- 04.09Neftchi Fargona6:2
- 26.08away · Qizilqum Zarafshon0:1
- 11.10Lokomotiv Tashkent2:3
- 20.09AGMK1:2
- 10.09away · Xorazm0:0
- 05.09Mashal Muborak5:2
- 23.08away · Neftchi Fargona0:3
Head to head
- 06.03.2026Sogdiana — Nasaf Qarshi0:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lokomotiv Tashkent | 23 | 11 | +9 | 38 |
| 5 | Nasaf Qarshi | 23 | 10 | +13 | 37 |
| 6 | Buxoro | 23 | 11 | +4 | 37 |
| 10 | Qizilqum Zarafshon | 23 | 9 | -7 | 30 |
| 11 | Sogdiana | 23 | 8 | -6 | 28 |
| 12 | Surkhon-2011 | 23 | 7 | -9 | 27 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →