Liga MX (Mexico), round 16 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Necaxa — Tijuana
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In short
Necaxa are slightly stronger: 44% against 29%, draw 26%.
3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 65%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Necaxa are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Necaxa — No. 17, 10 pts; Tijuana — No. 6, 22 pts. A gap of 12 pts.
- Necaxa: winless in 5; Tijuana: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Necaxa 3 wins, Tijuana 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Necaxa — Tijuana What is xG? | 1.8–1.4 | |
| Necaxa not to lose | 71% | |
| Tijuana not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 65% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 35% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 61% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 39% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Necaxa
- Necaxa goals
- Tijuana goals
- Corners and cards
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Necaxa | Tijuana |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| xG per match | 1.82 | 1.72 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.70 | 1.50 |
| Shots | 14.6 | 12.5 |
| On target | 4.8 | 4.2 |
| Corners | 5.7 | 5.1 |
| Cards | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| Possession, % | 46 | 42 |
Form
- 02.11away · Santos Laguna0:1
- 24.10FC Juárez1:1
- 21.10away · Chivas0:1
- 17.10Atlas0:2
- 12.10away · Pachuca3:3
- 01.11away · Monterrey3:3
- 29.10away · América1:1
- 26.10Santos Laguna4:1
- 22.10away · Toluca2:2
- 17.10Puebla0:0
Head to head
- 21.03.2026Necaxa — Tijuana3:0
- 01.09.2025Tijuana — Necaxa3:0
- 05.04.2025Tijuana — Necaxa1:2
- 19.10.2024Necaxa — Tijuana1:2
- 06.04.2024Tijuana — Necaxa2:3
Table
Liga MX on the same day
- 5127221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- 4526281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →