Primera Nacional, round 36 · Saturday, 31 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Ingeniero Hilario Sánchez
San Martín San Juan — Gimnasia Jujuy
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
5:1Came true
In short
Final score 5:1: the model's most likely outcome, San Martín San Juan to win (56%), came true.
San Martín San Juan are clear favourites: 56% against 18% for the opponent, draw 26%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 2.6 in total, against a competition average of 1.9.
Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings San Martín San Juan are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- San Martín San Juan are 82 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- San Martín San Juan: winless in 5.
- Last 4 meetings: San Martín San Juan 1 win, Gimnasia Jujuy 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: San Martín San Juan — Gimnasia Jujuy What is xG? | 1.7–0.9 | |
| San Martín San Juan not to lose | 82% | |
| Gimnasia Jujuy not to lose | 44% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 49% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 51% |
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Match events
- 9′Mauro Osores · San Martín San Juan1:0
- 13′Facundo Nadalín · San Martín San Juan2:0
- 22′Abel Argañaraz · Gimnasia Jujuy2:1
- 31′Luciano Ferreyra · San Martín San Juan
- 39′Diego López · Gimnasia Jujuy
- 42′Guillermo Acosta · San Martín San Juan3:1
- 46′Ramiro Rúmbolo · San Martín San Juan4:1
- 51′Nazareno Fúnez · San Martín San Juan5:1
- 77′Ramiro Rúmbolo · San Martín San Juan
Substitutions (9)
- 46′Ramiro Rúmbolo ↔ Sebastián Jaurena · San Martín San Juan
- 46′Genaro Rossi ↔ Luciano Ferreyra · San Martín San Juan
- 52′Juan Franzoni ↔ Emiliano Zambrano · Gimnasia Jujuy
- 61′Nicolás Pelaitay ↔ Leonardo Monje · San Martín San Juan
- 61′Lucas Acosta ↔ Nicolás Iachetti · San Martín San Juan
- 63′Valentino Arro ↔ Claudio Pombo · Gimnasia Jujuy
- 63′Federico Paradela ↔ Agustín Alonso · Gimnasia Jujuy
- 75′Sebastián González ↔ Guillermo Acosta · San Martín San Juan
- 79′Nahuel Denis ↔ Cristian Menéndez · Gimnasia Jujuy
Lineups
San Martín San Juan
- GKSebastián Díaz
- DFManuel Cocca
- DFMauro Osores
- DFHernán Zuliani
- DFFacundo Nadalín
- MFSebastián Jaurena46′
- MFGuillermo Acosta75′
- MFLuciano Ferreyra46′
- MFLeonardo Monje61′
- FWNazareno Fúnez
- FWNicolás Iachetti61′
Came on (5)
- MFSebastián González15′
- FWGenaro Rossi44′
- MFNicolás Pelaitay29′
- MFLucas Acosta29′
- FWRamiro Rúmbolo44′
Gimnasia Jujuy
- GKGonzalo Gómez
- DFMartin Lazarte
- DFDelfor Minervino
- DFJoaquín Varela
- DFDiego López
- MFHugo Soria
- MFEmiliano Zambrano52′
- FWCristian Menéndez79′
- FWAgustín Alonso63′
- FWAbel Argañaraz
- FWClaudio Pombo63′
Came on (4)
- MFFederico Paradela27′
- FWJuan Franzoni38′
- MFNahuel Denis11′
- MFValentino Arro27′
Form
- 26.10away · Nueva Chicago1:1
- 19.10Temperley1:1
- 11.10away · Deportivo Maipú1:1
- 04.10Almagro1:2
- 27.09away · Patronato de Parana0:3
- 25.10Atlanta1:2
- 18.10away · Nueva Chicago1:0
- 11.10Gimnasia y Tiro2:2
- 03.10away · Temperley1:2
- 28.09San Martín de Tucumán2:2
Head to head
- 14.06.2026Gimnasia Jujuy — San Martín San Juan2:1
- 26.03.2025San Martín San Juan — Gimnasia Jujuy0:0
- 07.07.2024Gimnasia Jujuy — San Martín San Juan1:0
- 19.02.2024San Martín San Juan — Gimnasia Jujuy2:1
Next match
- Gimnasia JujuyAlmirante Brown15 November · Primera Nacional · preliminary5227201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
Primera Nacional on the same day
- 363331XThe most likely outcome came true: X0:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:1.2.0
- 5726171The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 4430261The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.3
- 2229492The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.4
- 6025151The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 3:0.2.5
- 2931402The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:1, exactly right.2.3
- 4531231The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.0
- 5728141The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →