Belgian Pro League, round 11 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
OH Leuven — KV Mechelen
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
OH Leuven are slightly stronger: 46% against 26%, draw 28%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- OH Leuven are 55 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: OH Leuven — No. 13, 9 pts; KV Mechelen — No. 14, 9 pts.
- OH Leuven: unbeaten in 5; KV Mechelen: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: OH Leuven 1 win, KV Mechelen 1, 3 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: OH Leuven — KV Mechelen What is xG? | 1.6–1.2 | |
| OH Leuven not to lose | 74% | |
| KV Mechelen not to lose | 54% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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- OH Leuven goals
- KV Mechelen goals
- Corners and cards
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | OH Leuven | KV Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| xG per match | 1.38 | 1.08 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.92 | 1.58 |
| Shots | 15.0 | 10.6 |
| On target | 3.0 | 2.9 |
| Corners | 4.3 | 4.2 |
| Cards | 2.4 | 1.7 |
| Possession, % | 46 | 47 |
Form
- 01.11away · St.Truiden2:1
- 24.10Lommel2:2
- 17.10Francs Borains1:0
- 11.10away · Union St.Gilloise1:1
- 19.09RAAL La Louvière2:0
Head to head
- 01.02.2026OH Leuven — KV Mechelen2:2
- 25.10.2025KV Mechelen — OH Leuven1:1
- 03.05.2025OH Leuven — KV Mechelen1:2
- 13.04.2025KV Mechelen — OH Leuven1:1
- 31.01.2025OH Leuven — KV Mechelen1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | SK Beveren | 10 | 3 | -7 | 10 |
| 13 | OH Leuven | 10 | 2 | -7 | 9 |
| 14 | KV Mechelen | 9 | 2 | -7 | 9 |
| 15 | St.Truiden | 10 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
Belgian Pro League on the same day
- 2827442The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.0
- 5426201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- 3429372The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →