Belgian Pro League, round 11 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Westerlo — Sporting Charleroi
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Sporting Charleroi are slightly stronger: 44% against 28%, draw 27%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 63%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- In recent matches the betting market rated Sporting Charleroi higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.
Facts
- League table: Westerlo — No. 8, 14 pts; Sporting Charleroi — No. 4, 24 pts. A gap of 10 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Westerlo 3 wins, Sporting Charleroi 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Westerlo — Sporting Charleroi What is xG? | 1.4–1.7 | |
| Westerlo not to lose | 56% | |
| Sporting Charleroi not to lose | 72% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 63% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 37% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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- Westerlo goals
- Sporting Charleroi goals
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Westerlo | Sporting Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.5 | 1.2 |
| xG per match | 1.59 | 1.98 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.89 | 1.15 |
| Shots | 14.8 | 17.3 |
| On target | 5.3 | 5.8 |
| Corners | 3.6 | 5.4 |
| Cards | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Possession, % | 50 | 57 |
Form
- 31.10away · Anderlecht1:4
- 24.10SK Beveren4:4
- 16.10Patro Eisden2:0
- 11.10Royal Antwerp5:1
- 20.09away · St.Truiden2:0
- 01.11RAAL La Louvière5:2
- 24.10away · Royal Antwerp0:3
- 17.10away · Renaissance Mons1:0
- 11.10away · Standard Liège1:0
- 19.09Cercle Brugge3:2
Head to head
- 16.05.2026Sporting Charleroi — Westerlo0:1
- 05.04.2026Westerlo — Sporting Charleroi2:0
- 22.02.2026Westerlo — Sporting Charleroi2:1
- 08.11.2025Sporting Charleroi — Westerlo2:0
- 09.05.2025Sporting Charleroi — Westerlo4:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | Gent | 10 | 8 | +13 | 25 |
| 4, Europa League or Conference League | Sporting Charleroi | 10 | 8 | +9 | 24 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 10 | 6 | +2 | 19 |
| 7 | Lommel | 10 | 4 | +2 | 15 |
| 8 | Westerlo | 10 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Standard Liège | 10 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
Belgian Pro League on the same day
- 4628261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- 5426201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- 3429372The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →