Belgian Pro League, round 11 · Saturday, 7 November, 18:00 (UTC+3)

Westerlo — Sporting Charleroi

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Model prediction for 7 November

Westerlo28%

Draw27%

Sporting Charleroi44%

Model estimate at 17:41 (UTC+3)

In short

Sporting Charleroi are slightly stronger: 44% against 28%, draw 27%.

3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 63%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
In recent matches the betting market rated Sporting Charleroi higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.

Facts

League table: Westerlo — No. 8, 14 pts; Sporting Charleroi — No. 4, 24 pts. A gap of 10 pts.
Last 5 meetings: Westerlo 3 wins, Sporting Charleroi 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Westerlo — Sporting Charleroi What is xG?		1.4–1.7
Westerlo not to lose		56%
Sporting Charleroi not to lose		72%
No draw		73%
Both teams to score: yes		63%
Both teams to score: no		37%
Total over 2.5		58%
Total under 2.5		42%

Model vs market

The model and the market disagree: the model rates “Westerlo to win” at 28%, the market at 34%.

Westerlo to winModel28%odds 3.57Market34%odds 2.95
DrawModel27%odds 3.70Market25%odds 3.94
Sporting Charleroi to winModel44%odds 2.27Market41%odds 2.45
Total over 2.5Model58%odds 1.72Market61%odds 1.65
Total under 2.5Model42%odds 2.38Market39%odds 2.55
Both teams to score: yesModel63%odds 1.59Market65%odds 1.54
Both teams to score: noModel37%odds 2.70Market35%odds 2.86

Market — the probabilities in the bookmakers’ odds with their margin removed; odds — the fair price, 1 / probability. A comparison of two estimates, not betting advice.

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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Handicap Westerlo
Westerlo goals
Sporting Charleroi goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Westerlo	Sporting Charleroi
Goals scored per match	2.5	2.1
Goals conceded per match	2.5	1.2
xG per match	1.59	1.98
Opponents’ xG	1.89	1.15
Shots	14.8	17.3
On target	5.3	5.8
Corners	3.6	5.4
Cards	1.3	1.5
Possession, %	50	57

Averages per match: Westerlo — the last 10, Sporting Charleroi — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Westerlo

31.10away · Anderlecht1:4
24.10SK Beveren4:4
16.10Patro Eisden2:0
11.10Royal Antwerp5:1
20.09away · St.Truiden2:0

Sporting Charleroi

01.11RAAL La Louvière5:2
24.10away · Royal Antwerp0:3
17.10away · Renaissance Mons1:0
11.10away · Standard Liège1:0
19.09Cercle Brugge3:2

Head to head

16.05.2026Sporting Charleroi — Westerlo0:1
05.04.2026Westerlo — Sporting Charleroi2:0
22.02.2026Westerlo — Sporting Charleroi2:1
08.11.2025Sporting Charleroi — Westerlo2:0
09.05.2025Sporting Charleroi — Westerlo4:3

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
3, Europa League or Conference League	Gent	10	8	1	1	19–6	+13	25
4, Europa League or Conference League	Sporting Charleroi	10	8	0	2	21–12	+9	24
5	Anderlecht	10	6	1	3	13–11	+2	19
7	Lommel	10	4	3	3	13–11	+2	15
8	Westerlo	10	4	2	4	25–25	0	14
9	Standard Liège	10	3	3	4	15–16	-1	12

Season 2026/27

Full table

Belgian Pro League on the same day

20:15
OH LeuvenKV Mechelen
462826
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
22:45
Royal AntwerpLommel
542620
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
22:45
RAAL La LouvièreCercle Brugge
342938
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →