Serie B, round 6 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Stadio Comunale Euganeo
Padova — Carrarese
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0:2Missed
In short
Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (31%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 31% fails in about 69 matches out of 100 on average.
Padova are slightly stronger: 38% against 31%, draw 31%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Carrarese are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Padova — Carrarese What is xG? | 1.3–1.2 | |
| Padova not to lose | 69% | |
| Carrarese not to lose | 62% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 46% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 54% |
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Form
- 19.09away · Palermo1:2
- 12.09Ascoli1:0
- 06.09away · Cremonese1:3
- 29.08Hellas Verona1:1
- 23.08away · Pisa1:0
- 19.09Benevento0:1
- 12.09away · Catanzaro0:1
- 05.09Empoli0:1
- 29.08away · Ascoli1:1
- 22.08Mantova1:2
Head to head
- 10.02.2026Padova — Carrarese1:0
- 31.08.2025Carrarese — Padova0:0
Table
Next matches
- PadovaVirtus Entella17 October · Serie B323236XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.3
- CarrareseModena17 October · Serie B333037XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.4
Serie B on the same day
- 4527281The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:3Final score 1:3. Model's score: 1:0.2.9
- 4828241The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →