UEFA Conference League, round 3 · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
Panathinaikos — CSKA Sofia
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Panathinaikos are clear favourites: 76% against 8% for the opponent, draw 15%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 49%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Panathinaikos are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
- Panathinaikos are 358 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Panathinaikos — No. 11, 3 pts; CSKA Sofia — No. 28, 0 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- CSKA Sofia: 5 defeats in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Panathinaikos — CSKA Sofia What is xG? | 2.6–0.8 | |
| Panathinaikos not to lose | 92% | |
| CSKA Sofia not to lose | 24% | |
| No draw | 85% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 65% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 35% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Panathinaikos
- Panathinaikos goals
- CSKA Sofia goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 15.10Borac Banja Luka2:1
- 11.10away · Olympiacos0:1
- 20.09away · Kalamata1:0
- 13.09Panetolikos3:0
- 10.09Kifisia FC3:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Monaco | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 11, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Panathinaikos | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 12, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Hajduk Split | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 27 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 28 | CSKA Sofia | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 29 | AGF | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
Conference League on the same day
- AtalantaKairat Almatypreliminary801371The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.5
- FC MidtjyllandAjaxpreliminary3926351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- FK Crvena ZvezdaInter Club d'Escaldespreliminary5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- KuPSGentpreliminary2023562The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.0
- Lincoln Red Imps FCHajduk Splitpreliminary3126432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- TrabzonsporFreiburgpreliminary4825271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- AGFBragapreliminary3526392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- ThunHeart of Midlothianpreliminary3326412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 76% will not happen in roughly 24 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →