Super League Greece, round 6 · Monday, 12 October, MSK · Stadio Toumbas
PAOK Thessaloniki — Kalamata
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In short
Final score 1:3: the model's most likely outcome, PAOK Thessaloniki to win (82%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 82% fails in about 18 matches out of 100 on average.
PAOK Thessaloniki are clear favourites: 82% against 6% for the opponent, draw 12%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.6 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 71%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings PAOK Thessaloniki are about 1.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: PAOK Thessaloniki — Kalamata What is xG? | 2.9–0.8 | |
| PAOK Thessaloniki not to lose | 94% | |
| Kalamata not to lose | 18% | |
| No draw | 88% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 71% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 29% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap PAOK Thessaloniki
- PAOK Thessaloniki goals
- Kalamata goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 20.09away · Panetolikos3:1
- 13.09Aris Thessaloniki2:0
- 06.09away · Panathinaikos1:3
- 30.08away · Atromitos2:1
- 23.08Levadiakos4:0
- 20.09Panathinaikos0:1
- 13.09NFC Volos3:1
- 06.09away · Atromitos1:1
- 29.08away · Panetolikos0:2
- 22.08Aris Thessaloniki2:3
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Olympiacos | 6 | 4 | +3 | 13 |
| 4 | PAOK Thessaloniki | 6 | 4 | +5 | 12 |
| 5 | OFI Crete | 6 | 3 | +1 | 10 |
| 9 | Kifisia FC | 6 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Kalamata | 6 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 6 | 1 | -4 | 5 |
Next matches
- KalamataOFI Crete18 October · Greek Super League5127221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- PAOK ThessalonikiIraklis18 October · Greek Super League771671The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 82% will not happen in roughly 18 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →