Polish Ekstraklasa, round 12 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Pogoń Szczecin — Radomiak Radom
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Pogoń Szczecin are clear favourites: 59% against 17% for the opponent, draw 24%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Pogoń Szczecin are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Pogoń Szczecin — No. 4, 18 pts; Radomiak Radom — No. 16, 8 pts. A gap of 10 pts.
- Pogoń Szczecin: 3 wins in a row; Radomiak Radom: 3 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Pogoń Szczecin 1 win, Radomiak Radom 3, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Pogoń Szczecin — Radomiak Radom What is xG? | 2.0–1.1 | |
| Pogoń Szczecin not to lose | 83% | |
| Radomiak Radom not to lose | 41% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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Form
- 11.10Korona Kielce2:0
- 20.09away · Piast Gliwice2:1
- 13.09Wieczysta Kraków2:0
- 07.09Wisła Płock1:1
- 29.08away · Zagłębie Lubin0:0
- 12.10Motor Lublin2:3
- 20.09away · Lech Poznań1:5
- 14.09Piast Gliwice0:2
- 05.09away · Widzew Łódź0:0
- 29.08Cracovia2:1
Head to head
- 06.12.2025Pogoń Szczecin — Radomiak Radom2:2
- 20.07.2025Radomiak Radom — Pogoń Szczecin5:1
- 10.05.2025Radomiak Radom — Pogoń Szczecin2:0
- 08.11.2024Pogoń Szczecin — Radomiak Radom0:1
- 16.02.2024Radomiak Radom — Pogoń Szczecin0:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | Lech Poznań | 9 | 7 | +13 | 22 |
| 4, Europa League or Conference League | Pogoń Szczecin | 9 | 5 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 | GKS Katowice | 10 | 6 | +7 | 18 |
| 15 | Wieczysta Kraków | 10 | 2 | -4 | 8 |
| 16, Relegation | Radomiak Radom | 10 | 2 | -14 | 8 |
| 17, Relegation | Śląsk Wrocław | 10 | 1 | -7 | 6 |
Ekstraklasa on the same day
- Piast GliwiceCracoviapreliminary373132XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.7
- Korona KielceGKS Katowicepreliminary4229291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- Wisła KrakówRaków Częstochowapreliminary5027231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →