Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 8 · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Philips Stadion
PSV Eindhoven — SC Heerenveen
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:0Came true
In short
Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, PSV Eindhoven to win (77%), came true.
PSV Eindhoven are clear favourites: 77% against 8% for the opponent, draw 15%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.9 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 76%, both teams to score — 65%.
Why
- By the strength ratings PSV Eindhoven are about 1.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: PSV Eindhoven — SC Heerenveen What is xG? | 2.9–1.1 | |
| PSV Eindhoven not to lose | 92% | |
| SC Heerenveen not to lose | 23% | |
| No draw | 85% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 65% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 35% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 76% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 24% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap PSV Eindhoven
- PSV Eindhoven goals
- SC Heerenveen goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 20.09away · FC Twente2:3
- 13.09Sparta Rotterdam4:1
- 10.09Shakhtar Donetsk1:1
- 05.09away · Ajax3:1
- 30.08away · FC Utrecht6:1
- 19.09away · Sparta Rotterdam4:0
- 13.09Telstar0:0
- 06.09AZ Alkmaar2:3
- 30.08away · Willem II2:2
- 22.08PEC Zwolle0:2
Head to head
- 21.02.2026PSV Eindhoven — SC Heerenveen3:1
- 06.12.2025SC Heerenveen — PSV Eindhoven0:2
- 08.03.2025PSV Eindhoven — SC Heerenveen2:1
- 14.12.2024SC Heerenveen — PSV Eindhoven1:0
- 25.04.2024SC Heerenveen — PSV Eindhoven0:8
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | +20 | 20 |
| 2, Champions League qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | +16 | 19 |
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | +10 | 19 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 | SC Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
Next matches
- RB LeipzigPSV Eindhoven13 October · Champions League3927351The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
- SC HeerenveenExcelsior16 October · Eredivisie5226221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 77% will not happen in roughly 23 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →