Uzbekistan Super League, round 23 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK
Qizilqum Zarafshon — Surkhon-2011
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
In short
Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, Qizilqum Zarafshon to win (42%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 42% fails in about 58 matches out of 100 on average.
Qizilqum Zarafshon are slightly stronger: 42% against 27%, draw 31%.
The model expects few goals: 1.8 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 26%, both teams to score — 34%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Qizilqum Zarafshon — Surkhon-2011 What is xG? | 1.0–0.8 | |
| Qizilqum Zarafshon not to lose | 73% | |
| Surkhon-2011 not to lose | 58% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 34% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 66% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 26% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 74% |
91 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Qizilqum Zarafshon
- Qizilqum Zarafshon goals
- Surkhon-2011 goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 21.09away · Xorazm3:1
- 10.09away · Dinamo Samarkand0:1
- 05.09Buxoro3:2
- 26.08Nasaf Qarshi1:0
- 18.08away · Sogdiana1:2
- 20.09Kokand 19121:0
- 09.09away · Neftchi Fargona1:2
- 04.09away · Bunyodkor Tashkent1:0
- 25.08AGMK0:0
- 21.08away · Pakhtakor Tashkent0:0
Head to head
- 17.04.2026Surkhon-2011 — Qizilqum Zarafshon0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Andijon | 23 | 9 | -2 | 30 |
| 10 | Qizilqum Zarafshon | 23 | 9 | -7 | 30 |
| 11 | Sogdiana | 23 | 8 | -6 | 28 |
| 12 | Surkhon-2011 | 23 | 7 | -9 | 27 |
| 13 | Kokand 1912 | 23 | 5 | -8 | 23 |
Next matches
- AndijonQizilqum Zarafshon15 October · Uzbekistan Super League4329281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.2
- Surkhon-2011Xorazm16 October · Uzbekistan Super League4432241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:01.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →