Uruguayan Primera Division, round 9 · Monday, 5 October, MSK
Racing — Club Atletico Peñarol
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0:1Came true
In short
Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, Club Atletico Peñarol to win (46%), came true.
Club Atletico Peñarol are clear favourites: 46% against 24% for the opponent, draw 30%.
2.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 34%, both teams to score — 41%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Club Atletico Peñarol are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Club Atletico Peñarol: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Racing 2 wins, Club Atletico Peñarol 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Racing — Club Atletico Peñarol What is xG? | 0.8–1.2 | |
| Racing not to lose | 54% | |
| Club Atletico Peñarol not to lose | 76% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 41% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 59% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 34% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 66% |
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Form
- 26.09away · Club Atlético Progreso1:2
- 21.09away · Liverpool FC0:0
- 12.09Boston River3:2
- 06.09away · Cerro0:1
- 31.08Albion1:0
- 01.10away · Montevideo City Torque1:1
- 27.09Boston River2:1
- 19.09away · Cerro2:1
- 14.09Albion3:1
- 05.09away · Danubio4:0
Head to head
- 13.07.2026Racing — Club Atletico Peñarol1:1
- 30.03.2026Club Atletico Peñarol — Racing1:2
- 01.09.2025Racing — Club Atletico Peñarol1:4
- 10.03.2025Club Atletico Peñarol — Racing0:2
- 01.10.2024Club Atletico Peñarol — Racing0:0
Next matches
- Club Atletico PeñarolClub Atlético Progreso11 October · Uruguayan Primera811361The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.0
- Juventud de las PiedrasRacing11 October · Uruguayan Primera343234XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X2:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 0:0.1.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →