Polish Ekstraklasa, round 10 · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków
Raków Częstochowa — GKS Katowice
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In short
Final score 1:4: the model's most likely outcome, Raków Częstochowa to win (47%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 47% fails in about 53 matches out of 100 on average.
Raków Częstochowa are clear favourites: 47% against 27% for the opponent, draw 26%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 67%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Raków Częstochowa are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Raków Częstochowa — GKS Katowice What is xG? | 1.9–1.4 | |
| Raków Częstochowa not to lose | 73% | |
| GKS Katowice not to lose | 53% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 67% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 33% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 64% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 36% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Raków Częstochowa
- Raków Częstochowa goals
- GKS Katowice goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 19.09away · Korona Kielce2:3
- 15.09Zagłębie Lubin2:3
- 11.09Motor Lublin2:1
- 06.09away · Lech Poznań0:1
- 03.09Górnik Zabrze1:2
- 19.09Cracovia3:2
- 12.09away · Zagłębie Lubin1:2
- 04.09away · Piast Gliwice0:3
- 30.08away · Górnik Zabrze3:2
- 23.08Wisła Płock5:0
Head to head
- 07.12.2025Raków Częstochowa — GKS Katowice1:0
- 19.07.2025GKS Katowice — Raków Częstochowa0:1
- 08.02.2025Raków Częstochowa — GKS Katowice1:2
- 03.08.2024GKS Katowice — Raków Częstochowa0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Europa League or Conference League | Pogoń Szczecin | 9 | 5 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 | GKS Katowice | 10 | 6 | +7 | 18 |
| 6 | Wisła Kraków | 10 | 5 | +3 | 17 |
| 17, Relegation | Śląsk Wrocław | 10 | 1 | -7 | 6 |
| 18, Relegation | Raków Częstochowa | 10 | 1 | -12 | 3 |
Next matches
- GKS KatowiceWieczysta Kraków12 October · Ekstraklasa4527271The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.3.5
- Wieczysta KrakówRaków Częstochowa16 October · Ekstraklasa4328291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.5
Ekstraklasa on the same day
- 4328291The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →