Polish Ekstraklasa, round 13 · Monday, 2 November, MSK
Raków Częstochowa — Pogoń Szczecin
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 2 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Raków Częstochowa 39%, Pogoń Szczecin 33%, draw 28%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 65%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Raków Częstochowa are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Raków Częstochowa — Pogoń Szczecin What is xG? | 1.6–1.5 | |
| Raków Częstochowa not to lose | 67% | |
| Pogoń Szczecin not to lose | 61% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 65% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 35% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
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Form
- 09.10GKS Katowice1:4
- 19.09away · Korona Kielce2:3
- 15.09Zagłębie Lubin2:3
- 11.09Motor Lublin2:1
- 06.09away · Lech Poznań0:1
- 11.10Korona Kielce2:0
- 20.09away · Piast Gliwice2:1
- 13.09Wieczysta Kraków2:0
- 07.09Wisła Płock1:1
- 29.08away · Zagłębie Lubin0:0
Head to head
- 08.03.2026Raków Częstochowa — Pogoń Szczecin2:0
- 31.08.2025Pogoń Szczecin — Raków Częstochowa2:0
- 19.04.2025Pogoń Szczecin — Raków Częstochowa1:0
- 20.10.2024Raków Częstochowa — Pogoń Szczecin1:0
- 11.05.2024Raków Częstochowa — Pogoń Szczecin2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | Lech Poznań | 9 | 7 | +13 | 22 |
| 4, Europa League or Conference League | Pogoń Szczecin | 9 | 5 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 | GKS Katowice | 10 | 6 | +7 | 18 |
| 17, Relegation | Śląsk Wrocław | 10 | 1 | -7 | 6 |
| 18, Relegation | Raków Częstochowa | 10 | 1 | -12 | 3 |
Ekstraklasa on the same day
- Radomiak RadomŚląsk Wrocławpreliminary4129311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
- Zagłębie LubinKorona Kielcepreliminary383131XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →