Austrian Bundesliga, round 9 · Friday, 16 October, 20:30 MSK

Rapid Wien — Hartberg

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Model prediction for 16 October

Rapid Wien65%

Draw22%

Hartberg13%

Model estimate at 18:40 MSK

In short

Rapid Wien are clear favourites: 65% against 13% for the opponent, draw 22%.

2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 51%.

Why

By the strength ratings Rapid Wien are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Rapid Wien — Hartberg What is xG?		2.0–0.8
Rapid Wien not to lose		87%
Hartberg not to lose		35%
No draw		78%
Both teams to score: yes		51%
Both teams to score: no		49%
Total over 2.5		54%
Total under 2.5		46%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Rapid Wien
Rapid Wien goals
Hartberg goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Form

Rapid Wien

11.10away · LASK2:0
18.09WSG Tirol3:0
12.09away · Wolfsberger AC3:0
02.09away · Salzburg1:5
30.08Sturm Graz3:1

Hartberg

11.10Austria Lustenau4:3
20.09LASK3:3
13.09away · WSG Tirol2:2
30.08Ried3:2
22.08away · Altach2:1

Head to head

22.04.2026Rapid Wien — Hartberg0:2
19.04.2026Hartberg — Rapid Wien2:2
07.02.2026Rapid Wien — Hartberg1:1
31.08.2025Hartberg — Rapid Wien0:1
09.03.2025Hartberg — Rapid Wien2:1

Full record: 10 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Championship round	Rapid Wien	8	7	0	1	23–7	+16	21
2, Championship round	Salzburg	8	5	3	0	18–4	+14	18
5, Championship round	Ried	8	3	2	3	13–13	0	11
6, Championship round	Hartberg	8	3	2	3	14–16	-2	11
7, Relegation round	Grazer AK	8	2	3	3	6–16	-10	9

Season 2026/27

Full table

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 65% will not happen in roughly 35 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →