La Liga, round 13 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Rayo Vallecano — Valencia
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Rayo Vallecano are clear favourites: 51% against 21% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Rayo Vallecano are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Rayo Vallecano are 116 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Rayo Vallecano — No. 12, 12 pts; Valencia — No. 19, 9 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Rayo Vallecano 1 win, Valencia 0, 4 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Rayo Vallecano — Valencia What is xG? | 1.5–0.9 | |
| Rayo Vallecano not to lose | 79% | |
| Valencia not to lose | 49% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 45% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 55% |
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- Handicap Rayo Vallecano
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- Valencia goals
- Corners and cards
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Rayo Vallecano | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| xG per match | 1.61 | 1.08 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.60 | 1.55 |
| Shots | 17.6 | 10.6 |
| On target | 5.5 | 3.0 |
| Corners | 6.5 | 4.3 |
| Cards | 2.8 | 2.4 |
| Possession, % | 54 | 44 |
Form
- 31.10Celta Vigo3:0
- 27.10away · Recreativo Huelva3:2
- 24.10Elche0:3
- 19.10away · Getafe1:1
- 19.09away · Osasuna1:1
- 01.11away · Elche1:0
- 24.10Villarreal1:2
- 17.10Athletic Club0:0
- 11.10away · Racing Santander2:2
- 20.09Real Sociedad2:3
Head to head
- 14.05.2026Valencia — Rayo Vallecano1:1
- 01.12.2025Rayo Vallecano — Valencia1:1
- 19.04.2025Rayo Vallecano — Valencia1:1
- 07.12.2024Valencia — Rayo Vallecano0:1
- 12.05.2024Valencia — Rayo Vallecano0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Deportivo Alavés | 11 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 | Getafe | 11 | 3 | -8 | 12 |
| 18, Relegation | Levante | 11 | 2 | -5 | 10 |
| 19, Relegation | Valencia | 11 | 2 | -9 | 9 |
| 20, Relegation | Málaga | 11 | 0 | -13 | 5 |
La Liga on the same day
- Deportivo AlavésDeportivo A Coruñapreliminary4529261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- SevillaReal Betispreliminary4028321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- Real MadridCelta Vigopreliminary831351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →