La Liga, round 13 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Real Madrid — Celta Vigo
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Real Madrid are clear favourites: 83% against 5% for the opponent, draw 13%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 49%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Real Madrid are about 1.4 goals per match stronger.
- Real Madrid are 339 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Real Madrid — No. 3, 27 pts; Celta Vigo — No. 10, 12 pts. A gap of 15 pts.
- Real Madrid: 5 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Real Madrid 4 wins, Celta Vigo 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Real Madrid — Celta Vigo What is xG? | 2.4–0.7 | |
| Real Madrid not to lose | 95% | |
| Celta Vigo not to lose | 17% | |
| No draw | 87% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Real Madrid
- Real Madrid goals
- Celta Vigo goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Real Madrid | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| xG per match | 2.26 | 1.20 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.27 | 0.84 |
| Shots | 16.0 | 13.2 |
| On target | 6.9 | 3.5 |
| Corners | 5.9 | 3.6 |
| Cards | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Possession, % | 49 | 49 |
Form
- 01.11away · Racing Santander3:0
- 25.10away · Barcelona2:1
- 21.10RB Leipzig4:1
- 18.10Sevilla4:1
- 14.10away · Roma4:3
- 31.10away · Rayo Vallecano0:3
- 25.10Real Betis0:0
- 22.10away · Celtic2:1
- 18.10Deportivo Alavés2:1
- 15.10Juventus1:2
Head to head
- 06.03.2026Celta Vigo — Real Madrid1:2
- 07.12.2025Real Madrid — Celta Vigo0:2
- 04.05.2025Real Madrid — Celta Vigo3:2
- 16.01.2025Real Madrid — Celta Vigo5:2
- 19.10.2024Celta Vigo — Real Madrid1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Champions League | Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9 | +14 | 28 |
| 3, Champions League | Real Madrid | 11 | 9 | +18 | 27 |
| 4, Champions League | Real Betis | 11 | 7 | +3 | 23 |
| 9 | Villarreal | 11 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Celta Vigo | 11 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Deportivo Alavés | 11 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
La Liga on the same day
- Deportivo AlavésDeportivo A Coruñapreliminary4529261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- Rayo VallecanoValenciapreliminary5128211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- SevillaReal Betispreliminary4028321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 83% will not happen in roughly 17 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →