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UEFA Champions League, round 4 · Wednesday, 4 November, (UTC+3)

RB Leipzig — Manchester City

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Model prediction for 4 November

RB Leipzig24%
Draw25%
Manchester City51%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Manchester City are clear favourites: 51% against 24% for the opponent, draw 25%.

The model expects few goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.

Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 57%.

Why

  • Manchester City's starting XI is worth €767m, RB Leipzig's €233m (Transfermarkt).
  • By the strength ratings Manchester City are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

  • League table: RB Leipzig — No. 21, 3 pts; Manchester City — No. 17, 3 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: RB Leipzig 1 win, Manchester City 3, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: RB Leipzig — Manchester City What is xG?1.1–1.8
RB Leipzig not to lose49%
Manchester City not to lose76%
No draw75%
Both teams to score: yes57%
Both teams to score: no43%
Total over 2.555%
Total under 2.545%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap RB Leipzig
  • RB Leipzig goals
  • Manchester City goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

RB Leipzig

  • 13.10PSV Eindhoven1:0
  • 10.10Eintracht Frankfurt6:0
  • 20.09away · Bayer Leverkusen0:2
  • 13.09Hamburger SV5:0
  • 10.09away · Como1:4

Manchester City

  • 14.10Paris Saint-Germain2:4
  • 11.10away · Liverpool3:0
  • 20.09Sunderland5:3
  • 17.09Norwich City5:0
  • 13.09away · Manchester United1:0

Head to head

  • 28.11.2023Manchester City — RB Leipzig3:2
  • 04.10.2023RB Leipzig — Manchester City1:3
  • 14.03.2023Manchester City — RB Leipzig7:0
  • 22.02.2023RB Leipzig — Manchester City1:1
  • 07.12.2021RB Leipzig — Manchester City2:1

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
16, Knockout play-off for the round of 16Club Brugge21016–603
17, Knockout play-off for the round of 16Manchester City21014–403
18, Knockout play-off for the round of 16Borussia Dortmund21013–303
20, Knockout play-off for the round of 16AEK Athens21012–3-13
21, Knockout play-off for the round of 16RB Leipzig21012–4-23
22, Knockout play-off for the round of 16Sabah FK21012–4-23

Season 2026/27

Full table

Champions League on the same day

  • FenerbahçeLiverpoolpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
  • AEK AthensReal Madridpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
  • Borussia DortmundReal Betispreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
  • FC PortoNapolipreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
  • PSV EindhovenClub Bruggepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
  • Slavia PragueArsenalpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.3
  • LensComopreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
  • VikingSabah FKpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →