UEFA Conference League, round 3 · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
Riga FC — Jablonec
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Riga FC are clear favourites: 48% against 27% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Riga FC are 100 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Riga FC — No. 18, 1 pt; Jablonec — No. 24, 0 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Jablonec: winless in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Riga FC — Jablonec What is xG? | 1.6–1.2 | |
| Riga FC not to lose | 73% | |
| Jablonec not to lose | 52% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Riga FC
- Riga FC goals
- Jablonec goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 15.10away · Freiburg2:3
- 09.12away · CFR Cluj0:2
- 25.11AZ Alkmaar1:1
- 04.11away · Randers FC2:2
- 21.10Randers FC2:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Nordsjælland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Riga FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Universitatea Craiova | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 23, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 24, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Jablonec | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Ajax | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
Conference League on the same day
- AtalantaKairat Almatypreliminary801371The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.5
- FC MidtjyllandAjaxpreliminary3926351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- FK Crvena ZvezdaInter Club d'Escaldespreliminary5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- KuPSGentpreliminary2023562The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.0
- Lincoln Red Imps FCHajduk Splitpreliminary3126432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- TrabzonsporFreiburgpreliminary4825271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- AGFBragapreliminary3526392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- ThunHeart of Midlothianpreliminary3326412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →