International Friendlies · Tuesday, 29 September, MSK · Ak Bars Arena
Russia — Iran
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2:0Came true
In short
Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Russia to win (48%), came true.
Russia are clear favourites: 48% against 22% for the opponent, draw 30%.
The model expects few goals: 2.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 37%, both teams to score — 43%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Russia 1772, Iran 1748 — the teams are almost level on rating.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Russia — Iran What is xG? | 1.4–0.8 | |
| Russia not to lose | 78% | |
| Iran not to lose | 52% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 43% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 57% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 37% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 63% |
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Form
- 09.06Trinidad and Tobago3:0
- 05.06Burkina Faso3:0
- 28.05away · Egypt0:1
- 31.03Mali0:0
- 27.03Nicaragua3:1
- 27.06away · Egypt1:1
- 21.06away · Belgium0:0
- 16.06New Zealand2:2
- 10.10away · Russia1:2
- 07.09away · Bulgaria1:0
Head to head
- 10.10.2025Russia — Iran2:1
- 23.03.2023Iran — Russia1:1
Next match
- RussiaNamibia3 October · International Friendlies871121The most likely outcome came true: 16:0Final score 6:0. Model's score: 2:0.3.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →