International Friendlies · Tuesday, 6 October, MSK · Sovcombank Arena
Russia — Nigeria
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
3:3Missed
In short
Final score 3:3: the model's most likely outcome, Russia to win (55%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 55% fails in about 45 matches out of 100 on average.
Russia are clear favourites: 55% against 18% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Russia 1783, Nigeria 1706 — Russia rated higher.
- Russia: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Facts
- Russia: 4 wins in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Russia — Nigeria What is xG? | 1.8–0.9 | |
| Russia not to lose | 82% | |
| Nigeria not to lose | 45% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Russia
- Russia goals
- Nigeria goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 03.10Namibia6:0
- 29.09Iran2:0
- 09.06Trinidad and Tobago3:0
- 05.06Burkina Faso3:0
- 28.05away · Egypt0:1
- 10.06away · Portugal1:2
- 03.06away · Poland2:2
- 06.06away · Russia1:1
- 17.11away · Portugal0:4
- 10.09away · Ukraine2:2
Head to head
- 06.06.2025Russia — Nigeria1:1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →