Turkish Cup, round 3 · Wednesday, 28 October, (UTC+3) · Yeni Sakarya Atatürk Stadyumu
Sakaryaspor — Bursa Yıldırımspor
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In short
Final score 2:3: the model's most likely outcome, Sakaryaspor to win (38%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 38% fails in about 62 matches out of 100 on average.
Evenly matched: Sakaryaspor 38%, Bursa Yıldırımspor 35%, draw 27%.
The model expects few goals: 2.7 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Sakaryaspor are 71 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sakaryaspor — Bursa Yıldırımspor What is xG? | 1.4–1.3 | |
| Sakaryaspor not to lose | 65% | |
| Bursa Yıldırımspor not to lose | 62% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Sakaryaspor
- Sakaryaspor goals
- Bursa Yıldırımspor goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Match events
- 36′Efe Yuceer · Bursa Yıldırımspor0:1
- 57′Mert Akoglu · Sakaryaspor1:1
- 68′Arel Polat · Bursa Yıldırımspor1:2
- 78′Erkan Çagdas · Bursa Yıldırımspor1:3
- 81′Gökhan Akkan · Sakaryaspor2:3
Form
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Turkish Cup on the same day
- 2024572The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.2.9
- 3827351The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
- 4027331The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.8
- 3527392The most likely outcome came true: 21:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 3427392The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
- 3827351The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.7
- AnkarasporKırklarelisporfinal 3:2 (90 min 2:2)6023181The most likely outcome did not happen: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 3:0.2.9
- 3727361The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →