Turkish Cup, round 3 · Wednesday, 28 October, (UTC+3) · Şanlıurfa 11 Nisan Stadyumu
Şanlıurfaspor — Gölcükspor
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3:1Came true
In short
Final score 3:1: the model's most likely outcome, Şanlıurfaspor to win (37%), came true.
Evenly matched: Şanlıurfaspor 37%, Gölcükspor 36%, draw 27%.
The model expects few goals: 2.7 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Şanlıurfaspor are 58 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Şanlıurfaspor — Gölcükspor What is xG? | 1.4–1.4 | |
| Şanlıurfaspor not to lose | 64% | |
| Gölcükspor not to lose | 63% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Şanlıurfaspor
- Şanlıurfaspor goals
- Gölcükspor goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Match events
- 10′Fatih Ekinci · Şanlıurfaspor1:0
- 43′Oguzhan Dogan · Şanlıurfaspor2:0
- 63′Burak Isik · Şanlıurfaspor3:0
- 87′Rashid Shawahna · Gölcükspor3:1
Form
No past matches in the data yet.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Turkish Cup on the same day
- 2024572The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.2.9
- 3827351The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
- 4027331The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.8
- 3527392The most likely outcome came true: 21:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 3427392The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
- 3827351The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.7
- AnkarasporKırklarelisporfinal 3:2 (90 min 2:2)6023181The most likely outcome did not happen: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 3:0.2.9
- 3727361The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →