Portuguese Primeira Liga, round 9 · Monday, 26 October, MSK
Santa Clara — Benfica
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 26 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Benfica are clear favourites: 55% against 17% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 46%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Benfica are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Santa Clara — Benfica What is xG? | 0.8–1.5 | |
| Santa Clara not to lose | 45% | |
| Benfica not to lose | 83% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 46% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 54% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 41% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 59% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Santa Clara
- Santa Clara goals
- Benfica goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Casa Pia AC1:0
- 20.09Braga0:0
- 13.09away · Arouca2:1
- 06.09Rio Ave4:0
- 29.08away · Alverca1:1
- 11.10Vitória de Guimarães2:0
- 20.09away · FC Porto1:3
- 16.09away · Milan2:0
- 13.09Gil Vicente3:1
- 09.09away · Moreirense4:0
Head to head
- 13.02.2026Santa Clara — Benfica1:2
- 12.09.2025Benfica — Santa Clara1:1
- 15.02.2025Santa Clara — Benfica0:1
- 14.09.2024Benfica — Santa Clara4:1
- 27.05.2023Benfica — Santa Clara3:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | +16 | 24 |
| 2, Champions League | Benfica | 8 | 6 | +17 | 19 |
| 3, Champions League qualifying | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | +11 | 18 |
| 4, Europa League or Conference League | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | +8 | 18 |
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | Arouca | 8 | 4 | +4 | 14 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →