Brazilian Serie A, round 34 · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
São Paulo — Corinthians
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
São Paulo are clear favourites: 47% against 24% for the opponent, draw 29%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- By the strength ratings São Paulo are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
- São Paulo are 120 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: São Paulo — No. 10, 39 pts; Corinthians — No. 17, 32 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
- Corinthians: 5 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: São Paulo 2 wins, Corinthians 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: São Paulo — Corinthians What is xG? | 1.4–1.0 | |
| São Paulo not to lose | 76% | |
| Corinthians not to lose | 53% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 44% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 56% |
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Form
- 11.10Vitória2:1
- 08.10away · Cruzeiro0:2
- 03.10Santos1:2
- 20.09Internacional1:0
- 16.09Boca Juniors1:1
- 11.10away · Palmeiras1:4
- 08.10away · Internacional1:2
- 20.09Fluminense1:3
- 17.09Estudiantes0:1
- 13.09away · Flamengo1:2
Head to head
- 11.05.2026Corinthians — São Paulo3:2
- 21.11.2025Corinthians — São Paulo3:1
- 20.07.2025São Paulo — Corinthians2:0
- 29.09.2024São Paulo — Corinthians3:1
- 16.06.2024Corinthians — São Paulo2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9, Copa Sudamericana | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | +3 | 40 |
| 10, Copa Sudamericana | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 0 | 39 |
| 11, Copa Sudamericana | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | -10 | 39 |
| 16 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | -5 | 32 |
| 17, Relegation | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | -7 | 32 |
| 18, Relegation | Grêmio | 30 | 7 | -8 | 31 |
Brasileirao on the same day
- FlamengoGrêmiopreliminary831241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.1
- Athletico ParanaenseVasco da Gamapreliminary4028321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- BotafogoAtlético-MGpreliminary4128311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →