Ukrainian Premier League, round 9 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Shakhtar Donetsk — FC Kolos Kovalivka
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Shakhtar Donetsk are clear favourites: 78% against 6% for the opponent, draw 16%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 38%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Shakhtar Donetsk are about 1.5 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Shakhtar Donetsk — No. 1, 21 pts; FC Kolos Kovalivka — No. 9, 8 pts. A gap of 13 pts.
- Shakhtar Donetsk: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Shakhtar Donetsk 2 wins, FC Kolos Kovalivka 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Shakhtar Donetsk — FC Kolos Kovalivka What is xG? | 2.1–0.5 | |
| Shakhtar Donetsk not to lose | 94% | |
| FC Kolos Kovalivka not to lose | 22% | |
| No draw | 84% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 38% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 62% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Shakhtar Donetsk
- Shakhtar Donetsk goals
- FC Kolos Kovalivka goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10away · Veres Rivne3:0
- 20.09LNZ Cherkasy3:0
- 14.09Chornomorets Odesa2:0
- 10.09away · PSV Eindhoven1:1
- 05.09away · Karpaty2:1
- 10.10Epitsentr Kamianets-Podilskyi3:1
- 20.09away · Kudrivka3:2
- 11.09Karpaty0:2
- 05.09away · Kryvbas2:2
- 28.08Obolon Kyiv0:0
Head to head
- 21.05.2026Shakhtar Donetsk — FC Kolos Kovalivka0:1
- 06.12.2025FC Kolos Kovalivka — Shakhtar Donetsk0:0
- 19.04.2025Shakhtar Donetsk — FC Kolos Kovalivka2:4
- 18.10.2024FC Kolos Kovalivka — Shakhtar Donetsk0:1
- 08.03.2024Shakhtar Donetsk — FC Kolos Kovalivka3:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League qualifying | Shakhtar Donetsk | 8 | 7 | +14 | 21 |
| 2, Europa League or Conference League | Polissya Zhytomyr | 8 | 6 | +10 | 19 |
| 8 | Veres Rivne | 8 | 2 | -3 | 9 |
| 9 | FC Kolos Kovalivka | 7 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Bukovyna Chernivtsi | 8 | 1 | -2 | 8 |
Ukrainian Premier League on the same day
- 6025151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- 2731422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 78% will not happen in roughly 22 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →