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UEFA Champions League, round 4 · Wednesday, 4 November, (UTC+3)

Slavia Prague — Arsenal

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Model prediction for 4 November

Slavia Prague9%
Draw16%
Arsenal75%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Arsenal are clear favourites: 75% against 9% for the opponent, draw 16%.

3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.5).

Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 51%.

Why

  • Arsenal's starting XI is worth €581m, Slavia Prague's €43m (Transfermarkt).
  • By the strength ratings Arsenal are about 1.2 goals per match stronger.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

  • League table: Slavia Prague — No. 31, 0 pts; Arsenal — No. 7, 6 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
  • Slavia Prague: 5 defeats in a row.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Slavia Prague — Arsenal What is xG?0.8–2.5
Slavia Prague not to lose25%
Arsenal not to lose91%
No draw84%
Both teams to score: yes51%
Both teams to score: no49%
Total over 2.564%
Total under 2.536%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Slavia Prague
  • Slavia Prague goals
  • Arsenal goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Slavia Prague

  • 13.10away · Sabah FK0:2
  • 10.09Lens2:3
  • 28.01away · Pafos FC1:4
  • 21.01Barcelona2:4
  • 09.12away · Tottenham Hotspur0:3

Arsenal

  • 13.10Lille3:0
  • 10.10Leeds United2:1
  • 19.09away · Brighton & Hove Albion0:3
  • 15.09away · Ipswich Town4:2
  • 12.09away · Sunderland2:0

Head to head

  • 04.11.2025Slavia Prague — Arsenal0:3

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
6, Straight to the round of 16Sporting CP22005–1+46
7, Straight to the round of 16Arsenal22004–0+46
8, Straight to the round of 16Real Betis22006–4+26
30FC Porto20022–5-30
31Slavia Prague20022–5-30
32Napoli20021–4-30

Season 2026/27

Full table

Champions League on the same day

  • FenerbahçeLiverpoolpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
  • AEK AthensReal Madridpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
  • Borussia DortmundReal Betispreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
  • FC PortoNapolipreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
  • PSV EindhovenClub Bruggepreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
  • RB LeipzigManchester Citypreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.9
  • LensComopreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
  • VikingSabah FKpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 75% will not happen in roughly 25 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →