Peruvian Liga 1 · Thursday, 29 October, MSK
Sporting Cristal — Alianza Lima
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 29 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Sporting Cristal are slightly stronger: 42% against 30%, draw 28%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Sporting Cristal are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Sporting Cristal: 4 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Sporting Cristal 0 wins, Alianza Lima 1, 4 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sporting Cristal — Alianza Lima What is xG? | 1.4–1.1 | |
| Sporting Cristal not to lose | 70% | |
| Alianza Lima not to lose | 58% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 46% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 54% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Sporting Cristal
- Sporting Cristal goals
- Alianza Lima goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · CD UT Cajamarca1:0
- 19.09Atlético Grau3:1
- 13.09away · Club Deportivo Moquegua2:1
- 06.09Los Chankas5:0
- 30.08away · Sport Boys0:1
- 12.10away · Cusco FC2:1
- 19.09Asociación Deportiva Tarma2:0
- 13.09Universitario de Deportes1:2
- 06.09away · ADC Juan Pablo II1:1
- 30.08Deportivo Garcilaso0:1
Head to head
- 10.05.2026Alianza Lima — Sporting Cristal1:1
- 07.12.2025Alianza Lima — Sporting Cristal3:3
- 03.12.2025Sporting Cristal — Alianza Lima1:1
- 06.08.2025Alianza Lima — Sporting Cristal0:0
- 02.03.2025Sporting Cristal — Alianza Lima1:2
Peruvian Liga 1 on the same day
- CiencianoAtlético Graupreliminary5824181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- Los ChankasCusco FCpreliminary3428382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →