2. Bundesliga, round 12 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
St. Pauli — Bochum
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
St. Pauli are clear favourites: 52% against 21% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings St. Pauli are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- St. Pauli are 180 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: St. Pauli — No. 8, 12 pts; Bochum — No. 11, 11 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Last 2 meetings: St. Pauli 0 wins, Bochum 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: St. Pauli — Bochum What is xG? | 1.7–1.0 | |
| St. Pauli not to lose | 79% | |
| Bochum not to lose | 48% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap St. Pauli
- St. Pauli goals
- Bochum goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | St. Pauli | Bochum |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| xG per match | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.17 | 1.37 |
| Shots | 14.2 | 14.1 |
| On target | 4.7 | 4.2 |
| Corners | 4.7 | 5.0 |
| Cards | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| Possession, % | 50 | 51 |
Form
- 01.111. FC Nürnberg1:3
- 23.10away · Darmstadt0:0
- 17.10away · Hannover 961:1
- 11.10Karlsruher SC2:0
- 20.09away · Energie Cottbus1:1
- 30.10away · Energie Cottbus2:1
- 27.10Mainz 052:0
- 23.10Wolfsburg1:1
- 17.10away · Kaiserslautern0:2
- 11.10Arminia Bielefeld0:1
Head to head
- 17.05.2025St. Pauli — Bochum0:2
- 15.01.2025Bochum — St. Pauli1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Arminia Bielefeld | 10 | 4 | +1 | 14 |
| 8 | St. Pauli | 10 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Greuther Fürth | 10 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | VfL Osnabrück | 10 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 11 | Bochum | 10 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Hannover 96 | 10 | 3 | -6 | 11 |
2. Bundesliga on the same day
- Hannover 96Greuther Fürthpreliminary6122171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
- 1. FC NürnbergEintracht Braunschweigpreliminary5426201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
- WolfsburgHolstein Kielpreliminary5824181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →