2. Bundesliga, round 12 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Wolfsburg — Holstein Kiel
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Wolfsburg are clear favourites: 58% against 18% for the opponent, draw 24%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.4 in total, against a competition average of 3.0.
Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 65%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Wolfsburg are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
- Wolfsburg are 192 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Wolfsburg — No. 3, 19 pts; Holstein Kiel — No. 17, 8 pts. A gap of 11 pts.
- Last 3 meetings: Wolfsburg 1 win, Holstein Kiel 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Wolfsburg — Holstein Kiel What is xG? | 2.2–1.3 | |
| Wolfsburg not to lose | 82% | |
| Holstein Kiel not to lose | 42% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 65% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 35% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 65% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 35% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Wolfsburg
- Wolfsburg goals
- Holstein Kiel goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Wolfsburg | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.9 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| xG per match | 2.24 | 1.31 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.72 | 1.44 |
| Shots | 20.6 | 13.6 |
| On target | 7.6 | 3.2 |
| Corners | 7.1 | 5.6 |
| Cards | 2.3 | 3.1 |
| Possession, % | 58 | 52 |
Form
- 31.10VfL Osnabrück2:0
- 28.10away · Freiburg2:3
- 23.10away · Bochum1:1
- 17.10FC Heidenheim3:1
- 10.10away · 1. FC Nürnberg4:4
- 01.11away · Greuther Fürth0:1
- 28.10Hoffenheim1:1
- 25.10Dynamo Dresden3:0
- 16.10Hertha BSC0:0
- 09.10away · Eintracht Braunschweig0:1
Head to head
- 28.10.2025Wolfsburg — Holstein Kiel0:1
- 24.01.2025Wolfsburg — Holstein Kiel2:2
- 31.08.2024Holstein Kiel — Wolfsburg0:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Promotion | 1. FC Nürnberg | 10 | 6 | +11 | 21 |
| 3, Promotion play-offs | Wolfsburg | 10 | 5 | +11 | 19 |
| 4 | Kaiserslautern | 10 | 5 | +2 | 18 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Darmstadt | 10 | 2 | -10 | 9 |
| 17, Relegation | Holstein Kiel | 10 | 1 | -2 | 8 |
| 18, Relegation | Dynamo Dresden | 10 | 2 | -8 | 8 |
2. Bundesliga on the same day
- Hannover 96Greuther Fürthpreliminary6122171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
- 1. FC NürnbergEintracht Braunschweigpreliminary5426201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
- St. PauliBochumpreliminary5227211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →