UEFA Conference League, round 3 · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
St.Truiden — Brann
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
St.Truiden are clear favourites: 51% against 24% for the opponent, draw 25%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- St.Truiden's starting XI is worth €17m, Brann's €9m (Transfermarkt).
- By the strength ratings St.Truiden are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: St.Truiden — No. 6, 3 pts; Brann — No. 9, 3 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: St.Truiden — Brann What is xG? | 1.8–1.1 | |
| St.Truiden not to lose | 76% | |
| Brann not to lose | 49% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap St.Truiden
- St.Truiden goals
- Brann goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 15.10Iberia 19992:0
- 11.10away · KV Mechelen3:4
- 20.09Westerlo0:2
- 12.09away · SK Beveren0:2
- 05.09RAAL La Louvière4:0
- 15.10Lincoln Red Imps FC2:1
- 09.10Viking0:2
- 20.09Bodø/Glimt2:1
- 13.09away · Start0:2
- 05.09Lillestrøm1:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Straight to the round of 16 | Mjällby | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 6, Straight to the round of 16 | St.Truiden | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 7, Straight to the round of 16 | Lugano | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 8, Straight to the round of 16 | Freiburg | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 9, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Brann | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 10, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Monaco | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Conference League on the same day
- AtalantaKairat Almatypreliminary801371The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.5
- FC MidtjyllandAjaxpreliminary3926351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- FK Crvena ZvezdaInter Club d'Escaldespreliminary5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- KuPSGentpreliminary2023562The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.0
- Lincoln Red Imps FCHajduk Splitpreliminary3126432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- TrabzonsporFreiburgpreliminary4825271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- AGFBragapreliminary3526392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- ThunHeart of Midlothianpreliminary3326412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →