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Liga de Expansion MX, round 14 · Monday, 26 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Gregorio Tepa Gómez

Tapatío — Atlético Morelia

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Model prediction and result

1:2Missed
Tapatío43%
Draw29%
Atlético Morelia29%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Tapatío to win (43%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 43% fails in about 57 matches out of 100 on average.

Tapatío are slightly stronger: 43% against 29%, draw 29%.

2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 57%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Facts

  • Atlético Morelia: winless in 4.
  • Last 5 meetings: Tapatío 3 wins, Atlético Morelia 0, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Tapatío — Atlético Morelia What is xG?1.5–1.2
Tapatío not to lose71%
Atlético Morelia not to lose57%
No draw71%
Both teams to score: yes57%
Both teams to score: no43%
Total over 2.551%
Total under 2.549%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Tapatío
  • Tapatío goals
  • Atlético Morelia goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 20′Diego de Buen · Atlético Morelia
  2. 28′Diego de Buen · Atlético Morelia0:1
  3. 31′Diego Covarrubias · Tapatío
  4. 42′Carlo Soldati · Tapatío
  5. 46′Rubén del Campo · Atlético Morelia
  6. 55′Josué Martínez · Atlético Morelia
  7. 64′Mauro Nambo · Atlético Morelia0:2
  8. 71′Daniel Villaseca · Tapatío
  9. 76′Luis Ledesma · Tapatío
  10. 77′Diego Delgadillo · Tapatío
  11. 86′Vladimir Moragrega · penalty · Tapatío1:2
  12. 88′Vladimir Moragrega · Tapatío
  13. 88′Alejandro Andrade · Atlético Morelia
Substitutions (9)
  1. 55′Mauro Nambo ↔ Misael Dominguez · Atlético Morelia
  2. 56′René López ↔ Michell Rodríguez · Atlético Morelia
  3. 67′Gael García ↔ Sebastián Esparza · Tapatío
  4. 67′Cruz Medina ↔ Leo Torres · Tapatío
  5. 75′Alonso Flores ↔ Rubén del Campo · Atlético Morelia
  6. 75′Gabriel Martínez ↔ Josué Martínez · Atlético Morelia
  7. 76′Luis Ledesma ↔ Juan Uribe · Tapatío
  8. 78′Leonardo Jiménez ↔ Diego Covarrubias · Tapatío
  9. 81′Diego Latorre ↔ Daniel Villaseca · Tapatío

Form

Tapatío

  • 18.10away · Alacranes de Durango0:5
  • 14.10Tepatitlán FC4:1
  • 10.10Atlético La Paz2:4
  • 04.10away · Cancún FC0:1
  • 21.09Tlaxcala FC4:0

Atlético Morelia

  • 18.10Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero1:2
  • 10.10away · Tepatitlán FC1:1
  • 04.10Tlaxcala FC1:1
  • 27.09away · Venados FC1:2
  • 20.09Leones Negros2:0

Head to head

  • 23.03.2026Tapatío — Atlético Morelia2:1
  • 12.10.2025Atlético Morelia — Tapatío0:0
  • 18.01.2025Tapatío — Atlético Morelia1:0
  • 02.08.2024Atlético Morelia — Tapatío1:4
  • 18.02.2024Tapatío — Atlético Morelia0:0

Full record: 7 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
2Leones Negros1593334–20+1430
3Atlético Morelia1582526–19+726
4Piratas1574427–15+1225
10Mineros de Zacatecas1553726–26018
11Tapatío1553725–28-318
12Correcaminos de la UAT1545621–24-317

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

  • PiratasTapatío1 November · Liga de Expansion MX
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.3.2
  • Alacranes de DurangoAtlético Morelia1 November · Liga de Expansion MX
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →