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Liga de Expansion MX, round 15 · Sunday, 1 November, (UTC+3) · Estadio Luis de la Fuente

Piratas — Tapatío

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Model prediction and result

1:1Missed
Piratas63%
Draw21%
Tapatío15%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Piratas to win (63%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 63% fails in about 37 matches out of 100 on average.

Piratas are clear favourites: 63% against 15% for the opponent, draw 21%.

3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 56%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Piratas are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
  • Piratas are 188 points higher on Elo.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Piratas — Tapatío What is xG?2.3–1.0
Piratas not to lose85%
Tapatío not to lose37%
No draw79%
Both teams to score: yes56%
Both teams to score: no44%
Total over 2.559%
Total under 2.541%

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Match events

  1. 20′Vladimir Moragrega · Tapatío
  2. 33′Jesús Venegas · Piratas
  3. 60′Saúl Zamora · Tapatío
  4. 64′Daniel Villaseca · Tapatío0:1
  5. 89′Rolando González · Piratas1:1
  6. 91′Ángel Chávez · Tapatío
Substitutions (10)
  1. 55′Christian Fernandez ↔ José Clemente · Piratas
  2. 59′Sebastián Esparza ↔ Leonel Calderon · Tapatío
  3. 75′Leonardo Jiménez ↔ Juan Uribe · Tapatío
  4. 75′Rolando González ↔ Jesús Venegas · Piratas
  5. 75′Cruz Medina ↔ Leo Torres · Tapatío
  6. 75′Francisco García ↔ Brian Figueroa · Piratas
  7. 75′Gabriel López ↔ Kenneth Jaime · Piratas
  8. 81′Diego Delgadillo ↔ Carlos Hernández · Tapatío
  9. 81′Carlos Corona ↔ Daniel Villaseca · Tapatío
  10. 85′Ibe Fofana ↔ Omar Soto · Piratas

Match statistics

PiratasTapatío
  • 1.02Expected goals (xG)0.70
  • 60Possession, %40
  • 23Shots8
  • 9On target5
  • 1Big chances2
  • 6Corners2
  • 10Fouls15
  • 1Offsides0
  • 1Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Piratas

  1. GKHumberto Hernández (C)6.7
  2. DFKenneth Jaime75′7.1
  3. DFÁngel López7.4
  4. DFRamon Palomares7.3
  5. DFDiego Cruz7.7
  6. MFJesús Venegas75′6.5
  7. MFOmar Soto85′7.7
  8. MFBrian Figueroa75′7.5
  9. FWJuan Gamboa7.3
  10. FWDaniel Lajud6.7
  11. FWJosé Clemente55′7.1
Came on (5)
  1. FWDmitriy Yakovlev5′
  2. MFGabriel López15′6.5
  3. FWFrancisco García15′5.7
  4. DFRolando González15′7.4
  5. MFChristian Fernandez35′7.1

Tapatío

  1. GKEduardo García7.3
  2. DFÁngel Chávez6.9
  3. DFRodrigo Parra7.1
  4. DFCarlos Hernández82′7.5
  5. MFSamir Inda7.2
  6. MFSaúl Zamora (C)6.7
  7. MFJuan Uribe75′7.0
  8. MFDaniel Villaseca82′7.9
  9. MFLeonel Calderon59′6.6
  10. FWVladimir Moragrega7.4
  11. FWLeo Torres75′7.6
Came on (5)
  1. DFDiego Delgadillo8′
  2. FWCruz Medina15′6.1
  3. MFLeonardo Jiménez15′6.4
  4. DFSebastián Esparza31′6.2
  5. MFCarlos Corona8′

Form

Piratas

  • 25.10away · Dorados5:0
  • 18.10Tepatitlán FC3:0
  • 11.10away · Tlaxcala FC2:4
  • 04.10Alebrijes Oaxaca4:0
  • 25.09away · Mineros de Zacatecas0:3

Tapatío

  • 26.10Atlético Morelia1:2
  • 18.10away · Alacranes de Durango0:5
  • 14.10Tepatitlán FC4:1
  • 10.10Atlético La Paz2:4
  • 04.10away · Cancún FC0:1

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
3Atlético Morelia1582526–19+726
4Piratas1574427–15+1225
5Cancún FC1574428–18+1025
10Mineros de Zacatecas1553726–26018
11Tapatío1553725–28-318
12Correcaminos de la UAT1545621–24-317

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next match

  • Cancún FCPiratas6 November · Liga de Expansion MX
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6

Liga de Expansion MX on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →