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Liga de Expansion MX, round 15 · Sunday, 1 November, (UTC+3) · Estadio Francisco Zarco

Alacranes de Durango — Atlético Morelia

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Model prediction and result

3:1Came true
Alacranes de Durango46%
Draw31%
Atlético Morelia23%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:1: the model's most likely outcome, Alacranes de Durango to win (46%), came true.

Alacranes de Durango are clear favourites: 46% against 23% for the opponent, draw 31%.

The model expects few goals: 2.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.9.

Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 48%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Alacranes de Durango — Atlético Morelia What is xG?1.4–0.9
Alacranes de Durango not to lose77%
Atlético Morelia not to lose54%
No draw69%
Both teams to score: yes48%
Both teams to score: no52%
Total over 2.543%
Total under 2.557%

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  • Handicap Alacranes de Durango
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Match events

  1. 18′David Oteo · Alacranes de Durango1:0
  2. 39′Daniel Zamora · Atlético Morelia
  3. 40′Eduardo González · Alacranes de Durango2:0
  4. 48′José Múnoz · Alacranes de Durango
  5. 51′Luis Gutiérrez · Alacranes de Durango
  6. 52′Diego Aguilar · Atlético Morelia2:1
  7. 55′Misael Domínguez · Atlético Morelia
  8. 68′José Múnoz · Alacranes de Durango
  9. 77′Juan Angulo · penalty · Alacranes de Durango3:1
Substitutions (10)
  1. 46′Robert Castellanos ↔ Daniel Zamora · Atlético Morelia
  2. 46′Gabriel Martínez ↔ Michell Rodríguez · Atlético Morelia
  3. 46′Rubén Domínguez ↔ José Reyes · Alacranes de Durango
  4. 61′Víctor López ↔ Misael Domínguez · Atlético Morelia
  5. 71′Jan Ontiveros ↔ Eduardo González · Alacranes de Durango
  6. 71′Andy Garcia ↔ Jair González · Alacranes de Durango
  7. 75′Ander Izarra ↔ Josué Martínez · Atlético Morelia
  8. 78′Jared Torres ↔ Luis Gutiérrez · Alacranes de Durango
  9. 81′Orlando Botello ↔ Raúl Sandoval · Atlético Morelia
  10. 85′Luis Loroña ↔ Juan Angulo · Alacranes de Durango

Match statistics

Alacranes de DurangoAtlético Morelia
  • 1.24Expected goals (xG)0.50
  • 51Possession, %49
  • 7Shots13
  • 6On target4
  • 2Big chances0
  • 0Corners4
  • 11Fouls16
  • 1Offsides1
  • 1Yellow cards2
  • 1Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Alacranes de Durango

  1. GKJared Muñoz6.8
  2. DFSergio Flores (C)7.8
  3. DFEduardo González71′7.6
  4. DFJosé Múnoz68′6.1
  5. DFDavid Oteo7.8
  6. MFLuis Gutiérrez78′7.7
  7. MFÉric Cantú7.0
  8. MFJosé Reyes45′6.5
  9. FWAlonso Escoboza7.8
  10. FWJair González71′7.7
  11. FWJuan Angulo85′8.0
Came on (5)
  1. MFAndy Garcia19′6.2
  2. MFJan Ontiveros19′6.3
  3. FWJared Torres12′6.0
  4. FWLuis Loroña5′
  5. MFRubén Domínguez45′6.0

Atlético Morelia

  1. GKRamón Pasquel5.3
  2. DFRené López6.5
  3. DFRaúl Sandoval81′6.0
  4. DFDaniel Zamora45′5.8
  5. DFJose Van Rankin6.3
  6. MFJosué Martínez (C)75′6.6
  7. MFDiego Aguilar8.5
  8. MFMisael Domínguez61′6.2
  9. FWMichell Rodríguez45′6.1
  10. FWMauro Nambo6.3
  11. FWAlonso Flores6.1
Came on (5)
  1. DFGabriel Martínez45′6.7
  2. MFVíctor López29′6.9
  3. DFRobert Castellanos45′6.3
  4. FWAnder Izarra15′5.6
  5. FWOrlando Botello9′

Form

Alacranes de Durango

  • 25.10away · Venados FC2:3
  • 18.10Tapatío5:0
  • 11.10away · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero0:0
  • 04.10Mineros de Zacatecas4:2
  • 27.09away · Dorados1:0

Atlético Morelia

  • 26.10away · Tapatío2:1
  • 18.10Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero1:2
  • 10.10away · Tepatitlán FC1:1
  • 04.10Tlaxcala FC1:1
  • 27.09away · Venados FC1:2

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
2Leones Negros1593334–20+1430
3Atlético Morelia1582526–19+726
4Piratas1574427–15+1225
6Venados FC1574431–25+625
7Alacranes de Durango1573521–15+624
8Tlaxcala FC1564529–27+222

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

Liga de Expansion MX on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →