Kazakhstan Premier League, round 30 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK
Tobol Kostanay — Aktobe
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 31 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Tobol Kostanay are slightly stronger: 40% against 32%, draw 27%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Tobol Kostanay — No. 7, 37 pts; Aktobe — No. 4, 45 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
- Aktobe: unbeaten in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Tobol Kostanay 3 wins, Aktobe 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Tobol Kostanay — Aktobe What is xG? | 1.5–1.3 | |
| Tobol Kostanay not to lose | 68% | |
| Aktobe not to lose | 60% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Tobol Kostanay
- Tobol Kostanay goals
- Aktobe goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10FC Astana2:1
- 17.09FC Yelimay0:2
- 13.09away · Kairat Almaty4:1
- 06.09Ulytau3:1
- 30.08away · Kaspiy Aktau0:1
- 10.10away · FC Yelimay3:1
- 18.09Ulytau2:2
- 12.09away · Kaspiy Aktau2:1
- 05.09Zhenis1:0
- 30.08away · Irtysh Pavlodar1:2
Head to head
- 07.03.2026Aktobe — Tobol Kostanay4:1
- 20.07.2025Aktobe — Tobol Kostanay0:0
- 19.04.2025Tobol Kostanay — Aktobe2:0
- 22.09.2024Tobol Kostanay — Aktobe3:0
- 30.06.2024Aktobe — Tobol Kostanay3:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | FC Astana | 26 | 14 | +16 | 48 |
| 4 | Aktobe | 27 | 13 | +9 | 45 |
| 5 | Okzhetpes Kokshetau | 27 | 13 | +4 | 45 |
| 6 | FC Yelimay | 26 | 10 | 0 | 38 |
| 7 | Tobol Kostanay | 27 | 11 | -1 | 37 |
| 8 | Ulytau | 27 | 9 | -6 | 35 |
Kazakhstan Premier League on the same day
- Irtysh PavlodarOrdabasy Shymkentpreliminary1423642The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.5
- Kairat AlmatyFC Altai Oskemenpreliminary821261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- Kaspiy AktauFC Kyzylzhar Petropavlovskpreliminary4229291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
- UlytauAtyraupreliminary4131281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:01.9
- FC YelimayOkzhetpes Kokshetaupreliminary4825271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
- ZhenisKaisar Kyzylordapreliminary5127221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.2
- Zhetysu TaldykorganFC Astanapreliminary1322652The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →