UEFA Conference League, round 3 · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3)
Trabzonspor — Freiburg
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Trabzonspor are clear favourites: 48% against 27% for the opponent, draw 25%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Trabzonspor are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Trabzonspor are 56 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Trabzonspor — No. 3, 3 pts; Freiburg — No. 8, 3 pts.
- Trabzonspor: 3 wins in a row; Freiburg: unbeaten in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Trabzonspor — Freiburg What is xG? | 1.7–1.2 | |
| Trabzonspor not to lose | 73% | |
| Freiburg not to lose | 52% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Trabzonspor
- Trabzonspor goals
- Freiburg goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 15.10away · KuPS4:2
- 10.10away · Samsunspor3:0
- 19.09Galatasaray4:0
- 12.09away · Konyaspor0:1
- 06.09Gençlerbirliği5:0
- 15.10Jablonec3:2
- 11.10Schalke 042:1
- 19.09away · Eintracht Frankfurt2:2
- 12.09Borussia Mönchengladbach5:0
- 05.09away · Paderborn1:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Straight to the round of 16 | FC København | 1 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 3, Straight to the round of 16 | Trabzonspor | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 4, Straight to the round of 16 | Atalanta | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 7, Straight to the round of 16 | Lugano | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 8, Straight to the round of 16 | Freiburg | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 9, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Brann | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Conference League on the same day
- AtalantaKairat Almatypreliminary801371The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.5
- FC MidtjyllandAjaxpreliminary3926351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- FK Crvena ZvezdaInter Club d'Escaldespreliminary5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- KuPSGentpreliminary2023562The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.0
- Lincoln Red Imps FCHajduk Splitpreliminary3126432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- AGFBragapreliminary3526392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- ThunHeart of Midlothianpreliminary3326412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- MjällbyBorac Banja Lukapreliminary5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →