Turkish Cup, round 3 · Wednesday, 28 October, (UTC+3) · Maltepe Hasan Polat Stadı
Ümraniyespor — Küçükçekmece Sinop Spor
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
In short
Final score 2:1 (90 min 1:1): the model's most likely outcome, Ümraniyespor to win (62%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 62% fails in about 38 matches out of 100 on average.
Ümraniyespor are clear favourites: 62% against 16% for the opponent, draw 22%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Ümraniyespor are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
- Ümraniyespor are 275 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ümraniyespor — Küçükçekmece Sinop Spor What is xG? | 2.0–0.9 | |
| Ümraniyespor not to lose | 84% | |
| Küçükçekmece Sinop Spor not to lose | 38% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Ümraniyespor
- Ümraniyespor goals
- Küçükçekmece Sinop Spor goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Match events
- 28′Melih Bostan · Ümraniyespor1:0
- 86′Efe Can Baran · penalty · Küçükçekmece Sinop Spor1:1
- 103′Talha Özdemir · Ümraniyespor2:1
Form
- 28.10away · Kahramanmaraşspor0:4
- 18.12Fatih Karagümrük1:2
- 05.12Isparta 32 Spor3:2
- 07.06away · İstanbulspor0:4
- 03.06Giresunspor0:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Turkish Cup on the same day
- 2024572The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.2.9
- 3827351The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
- 4027331The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.8
- 3527392The most likely outcome came true: 21:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 3427392The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
- 3827351The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.7
- AnkarasporKırklarelisporfinal 3:2 (90 min 2:2)6023181The most likely outcome did not happen: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 3:0.2.9
- 3727361The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 62% will not happen in roughly 38 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →