Belgian Pro League, round 11 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Union St.Gilloise — Genk
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In short
Union St.Gilloise are clear favourites: 61% against 14% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Union St.Gilloise are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- Union St.Gilloise are 293 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Union St.Gilloise — No. 2, 26 pts; Genk — No. 6, 15 pts. A gap of 11 pts.
- Union St.Gilloise: 4 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Union St.Gilloise 4 wins, Genk 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Union St.Gilloise — Genk What is xG? | 1.9–0.9 | |
| Union St.Gilloise not to lose | 86% | |
| Genk not to lose | 39% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Union St.Gilloise
- Union St.Gilloise goals
- Genk goals
- Corners and cards
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Union St.Gilloise | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| xG per match | 2.36 | 2.05 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.92 | 1.07 |
| Shots | 19.6 | 15.8 |
| On target | 8.7 | 5.2 |
| Corners | 5.4 | 5.1 |
| Cards | 1.8 | 2.3 |
| Possession, % | 51 | 55 |
Form
- 31.10away · SK Beveren2:1
- 25.10Cercle Brugge5:2
- 22.10Hapoel Beer Sheva4:0
- 18.10KFC Nijlen3:0
- 15.10Real Sociedad1:1
- 31.10away · KV Mechelen0:1
- 25.10Standard Liège2:1
- 17.10away · Virton2:0
- 10.10Kortrijk3:0
- 20.09away · Club Brugge0:3
Head to head
- 07.03.2026Union St.Gilloise — Genk2:1
- 21.09.2025Genk — Union St.Gilloise1:2
- 03.05.2025Union St.Gilloise — Genk1:0
- 20.04.2025Genk — Union St.Gilloise1:2
- 15.03.2025Genk — Union St.Gilloise2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Club Brugge | 10 | 9 | +18 | 27 |
| 2, Champions League qualifying | Union St.Gilloise | 10 | 8 | +22 | 26 |
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | Gent | 10 | 8 | +13 | 25 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 10 | 6 | +2 | 19 |
| 6 | Genk | 10 | 4 | +4 | 15 |
| 7 | Lommel | 10 | 4 | +2 | 15 |
Belgian Pro League on the same day
- 6720141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.3
- 6522131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- 5724201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →