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Major League Soccer (MLS), round 33 · Sunday, 1 November, (UTC+3) · BC Place

Vancouver Whitecaps — Seattle Sounders FC

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Model prediction and result

5:1Came true
Vancouver Whitecaps56%
Draw24%
Seattle Sounders FC20%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 5:1: the model's most likely outcome, Vancouver Whitecaps to win (56%), came true.

Vancouver Whitecaps are clear favourites: 56% against 20% for the opponent, draw 24%.

3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.2).

Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 64%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Vancouver Whitecaps are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
  • Vancouver Whitecaps are 202 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Seattle Sounders FC: winless in 4.
  • Last 5 meetings: Vancouver Whitecaps 2 wins, Seattle Sounders FC 2, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Vancouver Whitecaps — Seattle Sounders FC What is xG?2.0–1.2
Vancouver Whitecaps not to lose80%
Seattle Sounders FC not to lose44%
No draw76%
Both teams to score: yes64%
Both teams to score: no36%
Total over 2.564%
Total under 2.536%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Vancouver Whitecaps
  • Vancouver Whitecaps goals
  • Seattle Sounders FC goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 1′Brian White · Vancouver Whitecaps1:0
  2. 9′Ryan Gauld · Vancouver Whitecaps2:0
  3. 43′Mathías Laborda · Vancouver Whitecaps3:0
  4. 48′Bruno Caicedo · Vancouver Whitecaps
  5. 48′Jesús Ferreira · Seattle Sounders FC
  6. 53′Brian White · Vancouver Whitecaps4:0
  7. 62′Jordan Morris · Seattle Sounders FC4:1
  8. 70′Aleksa Cvetković · Vancouver Whitecaps5:1
Substitutions (10)
  1. 46′Paul Arriola ↔ Kalani Rienzi · Seattle Sounders FC
  2. 46′Sebastian Gomez ↔ Jesús Ferreira · Seattle Sounders FC
  3. 46′Stuart Russell Hawkins ↔ Nouhou Tolo · Seattle Sounders FC
  4. 46′Hassani Dotson ↔ Snyder Brunell · Seattle Sounders FC
  5. 63′Cheikh Sabaly ↔ Bruno Caicedo · Vancouver Whitecaps
  6. 63′Ranko Veselinović ↔ Édier Ocampo · Vancouver Whitecaps
  7. 63′Kwasi Poku ↔ Brian White · Vancouver Whitecaps
  8. 74′Ralph Priso-Mbongue ↔ Ryan Gauld · Vancouver Whitecaps
  9. 79′Kee-Hee Kim ↔ Jordan Morris · Seattle Sounders FC
  10. 82′Mihail Gherasimencov ↔ Tate Johnson · Vancouver Whitecaps

Match statistics

Vancouver WhitecapsSeattle Sounders FC
  • 2.16Expected goals (xG)1.14
  • 48Possession, %52
  • 18Shots13
  • 9On target5
  • 4Big chances2
  • 1Corners6
  • 11Fouls17
  • 3Offsides3
  • 1Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Vancouver Whitecaps

  1. GKYohei Takaoka8.2
  2. DFÉdier Ocampo63′7.9
  3. DFTristan Blackmon7.7
  4. DFMathías Laborda8.5
  5. DFTate Johnson82′7.4
  6. MFRyan Gauld74′8.9
  7. MFAleksa Cvetković7.8
  8. MFOliver Larraz7.9
  9. FWYadaly Diaby7.2
  10. FWBruno Caicedo63′8.6
  11. FWBrian White63′9.0
Came on (5)
  1. DFMihail Gherasimencov8′
  2. DFRalph Priso-Mbongue16′6.0
  3. FWCheikh Sabaly27′7.2
  4. DFRanko Veselinović27′6.3
  5. FWKwasi Poku27′6.4

Seattle Sounders FC

  1. GKAndrew Thomas5.5
  2. DFNouhou Tolo45′5.2
  3. DFÁlex Roldán4.7
  4. DFJackson Ragen4.6
  5. DFKalani Rienzi45′5.1
  6. MFCristian Roldan7.2
  7. MFAlbert Rusnák7.8
  8. MFSnyder Brunell45′5.5
  9. FWDejan Joveljić6.7
  10. FWJesús Ferreira45′6.5
  11. FWJordan Morris79′7.1
Came on (5)
  1. DFStuart Russell Hawkins45′5.3
  2. MFHassani Dotson45′6.0
  3. FWPaul Arriola45′6.7
  4. FWSebastian Gomez45′6.1
  5. DFKee-Hee Kim11′6.2

Form

Vancouver Whitecaps

  • 29.10San Diego FC4:1
  • 25.10away · Colorado Rapids0:1
  • 18.10away · Austin FC2:1
  • 15.10away · St. Louis City0:0
  • 11.10away · Los Angeles FC1:1

Seattle Sounders FC

  • 29.10Houston Dynamo FC0:1
  • 25.10away · San Diego FC2:2
  • 18.10CF Montréal1:1
  • 15.10away · FC Dallas0:1
  • 11.10away · New England Revolution3:0

Head to head

  • 17.08.2026Seattle Sounders FC — Vancouver Whitecaps0:2
  • 19.03.2026Seattle Sounders FC — Vancouver Whitecaps2:1
  • 13.03.2026Vancouver Whitecaps — Seattle Sounders FC0:3
  • 28.09.2025Seattle Sounders FC — Vancouver Whitecaps2:2
  • 09.06.2025Vancouver Whitecaps — Seattle Sounders FC3:0

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: top 7 in each conferenceNashville SC33228369–25+4474
2, Playoffs: top 7 in each conferenceVancouver Whitecaps33187872–34+3861
3, Playoffs: top 7 in each conferenceInter Miami CF331611677–56+2159
17, Wild-card game, 8th v 9th, for a playoff placeColorado Rapids331271446–47-143
18Seattle Sounders FC3311101242–45-343
19, Wild-card game, 8th v 9th, for a playoff placeOrlando City331271462–78-1643

Season 2026

Full table

Next matches

MLS on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →