La Liga, round 11 · Friday, 30 October, MSK
Villarreal — Espanyol
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 30 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Villarreal are clear favourites: 67% against 12% for the opponent, draw 21%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Villarreal are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Villarreal — Espanyol What is xG? | 2.1–0.9 | |
| Villarreal not to lose | 88% | |
| Espanyol not to lose | 33% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 58% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 42% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Villarreal
- Villarreal goals
- Espanyol goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 13.10Napoli3:1
- 10.10away · Real Madrid0:1
- 20.09Levante3:1
- 17.09away · Málaga3:1
- 14.09Real Betis1:2
- 09.10away · Málaga1:1
- 18.09Elche1:3
- 15.09away · Rayo Vallecano1:2
- 12.09away · Osasuna2:0
- 06.09Sevilla1:1
Head to head
- 09.02.2026Villarreal — Espanyol4:1
- 08.11.2025Espanyol — Villarreal0:2
- 27.04.2025Villarreal — Espanyol1:0
- 26.09.2024Espanyol — Villarreal1:2
- 27.04.2023Villarreal — Espanyol4:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 67% will not happen in roughly 33 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →