UEFA Champions League, round 4 · Tuesday, 3 November, MSK
Villarreal — Paris Saint-Germain
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 3 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Paris Saint-Germain are clear favourites: 57% against 19% for the opponent, draw 23%.
The model expects few goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Paris Saint-Germain are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Villarreal — Paris Saint-Germain What is xG? | 1.0–1.9 | |
| Villarreal not to lose | 43% | |
| Paris Saint-Germain not to lose | 81% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Villarreal
- Villarreal goals
- Paris Saint-Germain goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 13.10Napoli3:1
- 10.10away · Real Madrid0:1
- 20.09Levante3:1
- 17.09away · Málaga3:1
- 14.09Real Betis1:2
- 10.10Le Mans3:1
- 20.09away · Marseille2:1
- 13.09away · Brest1:0
- 09.09Slovan Bratislava6:1
- 04.09Monaco1:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Straight to the round of 16 | Bayern München | 2 | 1 | +5 | 4 |
| 5, Straight to the round of 16 | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 1 | +5 | 3 |
| 6, Straight to the round of 16 | Como | 1 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 9, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 10, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Villarreal | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 11, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Champions League on the same day
- Shakhtar DonetskSporting CPpreliminary4026341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- GalatasarayVfB Stuttgartpreliminary4726271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- BarcelonaAston Villapreliminary761681The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.3
- Atlético MadridBayern Münchenpreliminary1722612The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
- Manchester UnitedRomapreliminary4126331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- FeyenoordInterpreliminary2726472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- Bodø/GlimtLillepreliminary7118111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
- LASKSlovan Bratislavapreliminary7218111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →