Portuguese Primeira Liga, round 9 · Friday, 23 October, MSK
Vitória de Guimarães — Marítimo
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 23 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Vitória de Guimarães are clear favourites: 55% against 19% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Vitória de Guimarães are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Vitória de Guimarães — Marítimo What is xG? | 1.6–0.8 | |
| Vitória de Guimarães not to lose | 81% | |
| Marítimo not to lose | 45% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 43% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 57% |
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- Handicap Vitória de Guimarães
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- Marítimo goals
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Form
- 11.10away · Benfica0:2
- 20.09Moreirense1:1
- 12.09away · Académico Viseu1:2
- 06.09Casa Pia AC0:0
- 31.08away · Braga0:1
- 10.10FC Porto1:2
- 19.09away · Gil Vicente1:1
- 14.09away · Moreirense1:3
- 05.09Benfica0:3
- 29.08away · Arouca1:2
Head to head
- 29.04.2023Marítimo — Vitória de Guimarães1:2
- 13.11.2022Vitória de Guimarães — Marítimo1:0
- 13.03.2022Marítimo — Vitória de Guimarães0:1
- 22.10.2021Vitória de Guimarães — Marítimo2:1
- 16.05.2021Marítimo — Vitória de Guimarães0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Estrela da Amadora | 8 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Marítimo | 8 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 | Rio Ave | 8 | 2 | -9 | 7 |
| 15 | Vitória de Guimarães | 8 | 1 | -5 | 5 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Nacional | 8 | 1 | -9 | 4 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →