Primeira Liga: matchday 9 predictions
23–26 October · 9 matches · season 2026/27
Primeira Liga matchday 9: 9 matches, 23–26 October. The model expects 2.6 goals per match on average. Its most likely outcome is a home win in 5 matches, an away win in 4. In matchday 8 the most likely outcome came true in 8 of 9 matches. The round is more than a week away: the estimates are preliminary and will be refined closer to the matches.
The round at a glance
- Biggest favourite · Most goals expectedSporting CP — Académico ViseuSporting CP 79% to win; most likely score 2:1; 3.4 goals on average; over 2.5: 67%
- Closest matchAlverca — Arouca42% v 29%, draw 29%
- Possible upsetVitória de Guimarães — MarítimoMarítimo 19% to win: the best underdog chance of the round
- Top-of-the-table clashSanta Clara — Benfica4th v 2nd in the table: 17% v 55%
What is at stake
FC Porto lead with 24 points from 8 matches; Benfica are second, 5 points behind. The leader’s game this round: Gil Vicente — FC Porto, 54% to win. Title chances by the season forecast: FC Porto 45%, Benfica 37%.
In the relegation and relegation play-off places: Nacional, Casa Pia AC and Estoril; they are 1 to 3 points behind 15th place. Most at risk by the season forecast: Casa Pia AC, 52% to go down.
The matches
Friday, 23 Octoberpreliminary estimates
- 5526191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
Saturday, 24 Octoberpreliminary estimates
- 4530261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- 4229291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- 1828542The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.3
Sunday, 25 Octoberpreliminary estimates
- 4329281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- 1827552The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.7
- 2630442The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.3
- 791471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.4
Monday, 26 Octoberpreliminary estimates
- 1728552The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.4
Probabilities: home win, draw, away win in 90 minutes; under the most likely outcome, its most likely score. The estimates are updated until kick-off.
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