Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Saturday, 14 November, 18:00 (UTC+3)

Assat — Jokerit

Model prediction for 14 November

Assat45%

Draw in regulation23%

Jokerit32%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Assat are favourites: 57% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.6 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 37%.

Why

Assat are more dangerous in attack: 2.5 expected goals against 2.1.

Facts

League table: Assat — No. 6, 34 pts; Jokerit — No. 16, 15 pts. A gap of 19 pts.
Last 2 meetings: Assat 2 wins, Jokerit 0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Assat — Jokerit		2.5–2.1
Assat to win (incl. OT and shootout)		57%
Jokerit to win (incl. OT and shootout)		43%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		37%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		63%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Assat
Assat goals
Overtime chance
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Form

Assat

31.10away · Vaasan Sport2:1
30.10IFK Helsinki3:2
28.10away · KooKoo3:5
24.10away · JYP1:4
21.10away · Tappara0:3

Jokerit

31.10away · JYP4:5 OT
30.10away · KalPa1:4
24.10away · KooKoo6:3
17.10away · Ilves3:4 SO
16.10Assat2:4

Head to head

16.10.2026Jokerit — Assat2:4
09.09.2026Assat — Jokerit3:2

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
5, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	SaiPa	18	9	3	1	5	52–38	+14	34
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Assat	20	10	1	2	7	46–48	-2	34
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Karpat	20	7	4	4	5	53–52	+1	33
15, Relegation play-off	Vaasan Sport	18	5	1	2	10	33–53	-20	19
16, Relegation play-off	Jokerit	18	3	1	4	10	41–62	-21	15
17, Relegation	KooKoo	20	2	1	2	15	46–81	-35	10

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

18:00
JukuritKooKoopreliminary
5050
1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:24.8
18:00
JYPPelicanspreliminary
5941
1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.6
18:00
KarpatTapparapreliminary
4951
2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:34.9
18:00
Vaasan SportHameenlinnapreliminary
4852
2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:24.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →