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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Saturday, 14 November, (UTC+3)

Karpat — Tappara

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Model prediction for 14 November

Karpat38%
Draw in regulation22%
Tappara39%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Close to a coin flip: Karpat 49%, Tappara 51% including overtime.

4.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 42%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.4 and 2.5.

Facts

  • League table: Karpat — No. 7, 33 pts; Tappara — No. 10, 28 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Karpat 1 win, Tappara 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Karpat — Tappara2.5–2.5
Karpat to win (incl. OT and shootout)49%
Tappara to win (incl. OT and shootout)51%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)42%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)58%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Karpat
  • Karpat goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Karpat

  • 31.10Jukurit1:2
  • 28.10Hameenlinna1:0
  • 24.10KalPa1:5
  • 23.10KalPa5:2
  • 20.10away · SaiPa1:2 SO

Tappara

  • 01.11Hameenlinna0:3
  • 30.10Ilves1:2 SO
  • 28.10away · JYP6:4
  • 24.10away · Pelicans4:5 SO
  • 21.10Assat3:0

Head to head

  • 22.09.2026Tappara — Karpat4:0
  • 28.02.2026Karpat — Tappara1:4
  • 04.02.2026Tappara — Karpat1:4
  • 01.11.2025Karpat — Tappara3:4
  • 27.09.2025Tappara — Karpat3:2

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
6, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsAssat201012746–48-234
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKarpat20744553–52+133
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKiekko-Espoo20823761–49+1231
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTPS Turku19912753–48+531
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTappara19723751–46+528
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsIFK Helsinki19714753–56-327

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • AssatJokeritpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.7
  • JukuritKooKoopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:24.8
  • JYPPelicanspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.6
  • Vaasan SportHameenlinnapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:24.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →