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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Saturday, 14 November, (UTC+3)

Vaasan Sport — Hameenlinna

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Model prediction for 14 November

Vaasan Sport37%
Draw in regulation23%
Hameenlinna40%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Close to a coin flip: Vaasan Sport 48%, Hameenlinna 52% including overtime.

The model expects few goals: 4.5 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 33%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.2 and 2.3.

Facts

  • League table: Vaasan Sport — No. 15, 19 pts; Hameenlinna — No. 14, 24 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
  • Vaasan Sport: 5 defeats in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Vaasan Sport 0 wins, Hameenlinna 5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Vaasan Sport — Hameenlinna2.2–2.3
Vaasan Sport to win (incl. OT and shootout)48%
Hameenlinna to win (incl. OT and shootout)52%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)33%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)67%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Vaasan Sport
  • Vaasan Sport goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Vaasan Sport

  • 31.10Assat1:2
  • 27.10away · KalPa2:5
  • 24.10SaiPa1:3
  • 23.10SaiPa3:5
  • 20.10Jukurit0:3

Hameenlinna

  • 01.11away · Tappara3:0
  • 30.10Kiekko-Espoo1:4
  • 28.10away · Karpat0:1
  • 24.10IFK Helsinki3:6
  • 22.10away · JYP2:3

Head to head

  • 17.02.2026Vaasan Sport — Hameenlinna0:4
  • 13.11.2025Hameenlinna — Vaasan Sport4:1
  • 11.10.2025Vaasan Sport — Hameenlinna4:5 OT
  • 13.09.2025Hameenlinna — Vaasan Sport4:1
  • 01.03.2025Hameenlinna — Vaasan Sport3:2

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
13, Relegation play-offPelicans17711840–38+224
14, Relegation play-offHameenlinna206301142–55-1324
15, Relegation play-offVaasan Sport185121033–53-2019
16, Relegation play-offJokerit183141041–62-2115

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Liiga on the same day

  • AssatJokeritpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.7
  • JukuritKooKoopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:24.8
  • JYPPelicanspreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.6
  • KarpatTapparapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:34.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →