DEL (German hockey league) · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Saturn Arena
ERC Ingolstadt — Frankfurt Lowen
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2:3 SOMissed
In short
Final score 2:3 SO: the model's most likely outcome, ERC Ingolstadt to win (72% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 72% fails in about 28 matches out of 100 on average.
ERC Ingolstadt are clear favourites: 72% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 57%.
Why
- ERC Ingolstadt are more dangerous in attack: 3.5 expected goals against 2.3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: ERC Ingolstadt — Frankfurt Lowen | 3.5–2.3 | |
| ERC Ingolstadt to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 72% | |
| Frankfurt Lowen to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 28% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 57% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 43% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap ERC Ingolstadt
- ERC Ingolstadt goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10away · Munchen5:1
- 04.10Kolner3:6
- 02.10away · Krefeld Pinguine1:3
- 27.09Adler Mannheim3:2 OT
- 25.09away · Straubing Tigers1:4
- 08.10Krefeld Pinguine2:5
- 04.10away · Bremerhaven1:2
- 02.10Eisbaren Berlin0:2
- 27.09away · Munchen4:1
- 25.09Nurnberg Ice Tigers1:2
Head to head
- 18.01.2026Frankfurt Lowen — ERC Ingolstadt1:2 SO
- 06.01.2026ERC Ingolstadt — Frankfurt Lowen6:3
- 02.11.2025Frankfurt Lowen — ERC Ingolstadt0:8
- 12.10.2025ERC Ingolstadt — Frankfurt Lowen5:2
- 02.03.2025Frankfurt Lowen — ERC Ingolstadt3:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Kolner | 8 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 10, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Frankfurt Lowen | 8 | 2 | +1 | 9 |
| 11 | ERC Ingolstadt | 8 | 2 | -7 | 9 |
| 12 | Bremerhaven | 8 | 3 | -7 | 9 |
Next matches
- SchwenningerERC Ingolstadt16 October · DEL42582The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.8
- Frankfurt LowenStraubing Tigers16 October · DEL37632The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.6
DEL on the same day
- 75251The most likely outcome did not happen: 117%1:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 4:2.6.2
- 49512The most likely outcome came true: 222%0:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 2:3.5.3
- 45552The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%3:2OTFinal score 3:2 in overtime. Model's score: 2:3.5.3
- 62381The most likely outcome came true: 120%4:2Final score 4:2. Model's score: 4:2, exactly right.5.9
- 39612The most likely outcome came true: 221%3:4Final score 3:4. Model's score: 2:4.5.3
- 57431The most likely outcome came true: 121%2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 4:2.5.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →