VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Gornyak — Dizel
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Gornyak are favourites: 54% to win including overtime and shootout.
4.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (4.7).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 32%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.3 and 2.1.
Facts
- League table: Gornyak — No. 18, 20 pts; Dizel — No. 25, 15 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
- Dizel: 4 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Gornyak 2 wins, Dizel 3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Gornyak — Dizel | 2.3–2.1 | |
| Gornyak to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 54% | |
| Dizel to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 46% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 32% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 68% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Gornyak
- Gornyak goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 31.10Dyn. Altay3:2
- 29.10Metallurg Novokuznetsk3:4 SO
- 27.10Krasnoyarsk0:3
- 25.10HC Norilsk0:2
- 18.10away · Kaluga3:1
- 01.11Olympia4:5 SO
- 23.10Tambov1:2
- 21.10Buran Voronezh0:4
- 17.10away · HC Yugra0:3
- 15.10away · Rubin Tyumen3:2 OT
Head to head
- 28.02.2026Gornyak — Dizel2:3
- 22.09.2025Dizel — Gornyak3:1
- 17.02.2025Dizel — Gornyak3:2
- 06.10.2024Gornyak — Dizel4:0
- 30.11.2023Dizel — Gornyak0:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Olympia | 22 | 10 | -3 | 21 |
| 18 | Gornyak | 17 | 9 | +3 | 20 |
| 19 | Dinamo St. Petersburg | 18 | 8 | -5 | 19 |
| 24 | Krasnoyarsk | 20 | 8 | -14 | 16 |
| 25 | Dizel | 18 | 6 | -10 | 15 |
| 26 | Zvezda Moscow | 18 | 7 | -14 | 15 |
VHL on the same day
- HC NorilskKalugapreliminary51491The model's most likely outcome: 125%Model's score: 2:13.9
- Chelmet ChelyabinskKristall Saratovpreliminary55451The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.2
- Dinamo St. PetersburgHC Yugrapreliminary34662The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 1:34.5
- AlmetyevskDyn. Altaypreliminary74261The model's most likely outcome: 119%Model's score: 3:14.8
- SKA-VMF St. PetersburgRubin Tyumenpreliminary67331The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →