VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
HC Norilsk — Kaluga
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Close to a coin flip: HC Norilsk 51%, Kaluga 49% including overtime.
The model expects few goals: 3.9 in total, against a competition average of 4.7.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 23%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.0 and 1.9.
Facts
- League table: HC Norilsk — No. 2, 32 pts; Kaluga — No. 9, 26 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
- HC Norilsk: 5 wins in a row; Kaluga: 3 defeats in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: HC Norilsk — Kaluga | 2.0–1.9 | |
| HC Norilsk to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 51% | |
| Kaluga to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 49% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 23% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 77% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap HC Norilsk
- HC Norilsk goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 03.11Dinamo St. Petersburg3:2 SO
- 01.11Zvezda Moscow5:2
- 30.10Khimik5:4
- 25.10away · Gornyak2:0
- 23.10away · Chelmet Chelyabinsk2:1
- 28.10away · SKA-VMF St. Petersburg0:2
- 26.10away · Dinamo St. Petersburg0:3
- 24.10away · Zvezda Moscow2:3 OT
- 22.10away · Khimik3:2 SO
- 18.10Gornyak1:3
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Playoffs | Omskie Krylia | 20 | 17 | +28 | 34 |
| 2, Playoffs | HC Norilsk | 22 | 15 | +10 | 32 |
| 3, Playoffs | Almetyevsk | 19 | 15 | +19 | 30 |
| 8, Playoffs | Khimik | 20 | 11 | +22 | 26 |
| 9, Playoffs | Kaluga | 20 | 11 | +9 | 26 |
| 10, Playoffs | SKA-VMF St. Petersburg | 17 | 12 | +25 | 25 |
VHL on the same day
- Chelmet ChelyabinskKristall Saratovpreliminary55451The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.2
- GornyakDizelpreliminary54461The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.4
- Dinamo St. PetersburgHC Yugrapreliminary34662The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 1:34.5
- AlmetyevskDyn. Altaypreliminary74261The model's most likely outcome: 119%Model's score: 3:14.8
- SKA-VMF St. PetersburgRubin Tyumenpreliminary67331The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →