AHL (American Hockey League) · Friday, 30 October, MSK

Hamilton Hammers — Hartford Wolf Pack

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Model prediction for 30 October

Hamilton Hammers47%
Draw in regulation20%
Hartford Wolf Pack33%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Hamilton Hammers are favourites: 58% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects plenty of goals: 6.3 in total, against a competition average of 5.8.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 65%.

Why

  • Hamilton Hammers are more dangerous in attack: 3.4 expected goals against 2.9.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Hamilton Hammers — Hartford Wolf Pack3.4–2.9
Hamilton Hammers to win (incl. OT and shootout)58%
Hartford Wolf Pack to win (incl. OT and shootout)42%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)65%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)35%

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Form

Hamilton Hammers

  • 11.10Toronto Marlies2:5
  • 10.10Toronto Marlies4:5 SO
  • 03.10away · Toronto Marlies3:5
  • 03.10away · Belleville Senators5:2

Hartford Wolf Pack

  • 11.10Laval Rocket2:5
  • 11.10Wilkes-Barre/Scranton1:7
  • 10.10away · Providence Bruins2:0
  • 05.10away · Wilkes-Barre/Scranton3:2
  • 04.10away · Lehigh Valley Phantoms5:2

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−PtsP%
17Springfield Thunderbirds42118–9-15.625
18Hartford Wolf Pack530213–16-36.600
19Tucson Roadrunners420214–12+24.500
22Belleville Senators420210–13-34.500
23Hamilton Hammers411214–17-33.375
24Abbotsford Canucks411211–15-43.375

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss, ranked by points percentage

Full table

AHL on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →